GW2 realese date speculations

[Naoroji]

"As for the next year business outlook;
As you pointed out, we do not have any major launch expected for next year. So, next year... Only a couple of launches, but those are the casual game genre, so, there are no major titles coming to the market next year."

I know, it's almost Engrish, but the guy is Korean. Lol.

[martin999]

I think this is gonna be hard for the fans and also Anet.

If it's not next year, then how are they gonna keep the hype up?! I mean, beta is only VISIBLE to those who hear it and play it; so the other people who don't follow the news will eventually get bored of waiting and move on...meh....

i don't know if anet is gonna be able to keep the hype up......everytime i go to this forum and see no new interviews or news, i'm just disappointed, to be honest...haha

I mean, is Anet assuming: "oh, we don't care about how guildwars players are doing right now, when GW2 comes out, they will play it anyways, so what the heck."

[4thVariety]

It's really strange. First ArenaNet pumps out three chapters in record time as if they were the "coding beasts of eternal crunch time". Then they scrap Utopia and take some more time to refurbish it into EotN, a chapter notorious for its recycling of dungeon stages. This extreme makeover raised the time gap from Nightfall to only 12 months.

Then from September 2007 until late November 2008, ArenaNet goes dark for almost 15 months developing Guild Wars2 (The BMP is released, but we are being told that this were the efforts of a small team). And by dark I mean totally dark, there is no paper-trail, no leaks, no nothing. At the same time NC-USA was in upheaval about the Tabula Rasa situation and completely restructured. Either not a lot of things were done, or whatever ArenaNet did was dumped and started over, since Jeff Strain being in charge of NCwest had its perks.

The Garriotts are gone and November 2008 marks the date when ArenaNet licenses Umbra middleware for their 3D engine. One could say that this is the time when the engine first started to put out pictures in real time on anything remotely similar to a target platform.

It takes eight more months until the next breadcrumb drops in the net. It's May 2009 and some voicework is being done. The thing with voice work is that it tends to always being done very very very early. The fact that the voices are being recorded in early 2009 already pushes the release date to at least late 2010.

August 2009 comes around and two things happen. We get to see a trailer which does look good but is still missing that final passover of ArenaNet special tinkering with texture effects. At the same time there is an immense push for the old GW with the Live Team getting more members and players being recruited into testing updates. Both these things together do not indicate a release in early 2010

For early 2010 ArenaNet hinted at wanting to disclose GW2 gameplay. That's most likely due to the fact of the current state not being considered the final gameplay. So if the features are not locked until 2010, then the design of the levels, event-zones, etc. will also not be up to snuff. There seems to be a book release around the 5th birthday of GW, but the game itself is still far off it seems.

But in contrast to 2008 there is tangible proof that something is being done. In 2008 there really wasn't anything to point to.

[Mordakai]

Originally Posted by 4thVariety

But in contrast to 2008 there is tangible proof that something is being done. In 2008 there really wasn't anything to point to.

great summary, and now I look at it, it doesn't sound strange at all.

2011 release looks like it matches what we know so far. PAX 2010 will probably have beta announcement (hopefully open).

[Ravious]

Originally Posted by 4thVariety

It's really strange. First ArenaNet pumps out three chapters in record time as if they were the "coding beasts of eternal crunch time". Then they scrap Utopia and take some more time to refurbish it into EotN, a chapter notorious for its recycling of dungeon stages. This extreme makeover raised the time gap from Nightfall to only 12 months.

And, they are quite a larger operation now with what 170+ employees?

[Mordakai]

It took five years to create the original Guild Wars, correct?

Figure GW2 started in late 2006/2007 + 5 years = 2011.

[Ravious]

Yeah, if you consider they started from scratch with a skeleton crew of employees.

[Trandoshanjake]

Originally Posted by Ravious

Yeah, if you consider they started from scratch with a skeleton crew of employees.

They are essentially starting from scratch again, while trying to build a MUCH bigger game.

[Mordakai]

Originally Posted by Ravious

Yeah, if you consider they started from scratch with a skeleton crew of employees.

Well, maybe GW2 is going is just going to be better...


But, frankly, I think Anet should just announce a date already, even if it is 2011. It's the uncertainty that gets everyone riled up.

And if it does come out in 2010, nobody will complain!

[Naoroji]

Originally Posted by Trandoshanjake

They are essentially starting from scratch again, while trying to build a MUCH bigger game.

They have lore, they have the areas, they have the races thought out, they have models that would need updating, but not to an insane amount,... I mean, everything's thought out already. All that's left is the programming. Usually, good ideas are the hardest. Programming is just repetitive and quite time-absorbing. But, still. They already had quite a base, I think.

[Lord Bazaah]

Naoriji, I don't think you understand much work goes into just putting a z-axis into a game. Not to mention doubling the content. Ooh and then there that nifty Day/Night cycle that has to change the rendering at least 4 times/cycle. And what about making a dynamic game with "events"? Of course this is not mentioning changing a instanced game to persistent with a Havok physics engine. Also, there is that little detail of making it all look seamless.

[athariel]

Originally Posted by Lord Bazaah

Naoriji, I don't think you understand much work goes into just putting a z-axis into a game. Not to mention doubling the content. Ooh and then there that nifty Day/Night cycle that has to change the rendering at least 4 times/cycle. And what about making a dynamic game with "events"? Of course this is not mentioning changing a instanced game to persistent with a Havok physics engine. Also, there is that little detail of making it all look seamless.

Z-axis is no biggie, especially without flying (read why Blizz is taking their time to remake old areas - keywords "flying" "mounts"). And day/night cycle is just a matter of toning down the brightness, adding some fog and adding some campfire/torch effects and that's it.

:P

[Gigashadow]

Originally Posted by 4thVariety

August 2009 comes around and two things happen. We get to see a trailer which does look good but is still missing that final passover of ArenaNet special tinkering with texture effects. At the same time there is an immense push for the old GW with the Live Team getting more members and players being recruited into testing updates. Both these things together do not indicate a release in early 2010

From that other video interview posted with Jeff Grubb last week, it sounded like the engine had only just got to the state where they could show anything. And if you look, it certainly is missing some things, such as no dynamic shadows (with, oddly, an exception for the Asura part). As many people commented, the in-game footage looked nice enough, but they weren't blown away (as was the case with, say, GW1), so it looks like there's a lot more work that has to happen on that front.

Originally Posted by 4thVariety

For early 2010 ArenaNet hinted at wanting to disclose GW2 gameplay. That's most likely due to the fact of the current state not being considered the final gameplay. So if the features are not locked until 2010, then the design of the levels, event-zones, etc. will also not be up to snuff. There seems to be a book release around the 5th birthday of GW, but the game itself is still far off it seems.

I think the game mechanics, classes, etc. have been decided for a long time. I think they just don't want to reveal any of that yet, and just trickle it out as we get closer to release.

My guess is closed beta will start around the time the first book comes out, and the hype meter will have been cranked up pretty high by that point. Otherwise, bothering with a book feels kind of pointless with respect to marketing; the number of people that care about books based on computer games isn't that large in the first place, especially for a 5 year old game.

[Feathermoore]

The point is, they started with more than what they had for GW1.

[Ravious]

Originally Posted by Naoroji

They have lore, they have the areas, they have the races thought out, they have models that would need updating, but not to an insane amount,... I mean, everything's thought out already. All that's left is the programming. Usually, good ideas are the hardest. Programming is just repetitive and quite time-absorbing. But, still. They already had quite a base, I think.

They have the basic graphics engines, they have netcode, they understand what they need for their databases, etc. To say they are even essentially starting over from scratch is simply not true. Aiming higher, okay, that I agree with.

[Dutchsmurf]

Originally Posted by Gigashadow

From that other video interview posted with Jeff Grubb last week, it sounded like the engine had only just got to the state where they could show anything. And if you look, it certainly is missing some things, such as no dynamic shadows (with, oddly, an exception for the Asura part). As many people commented, the in-game footage looked nice enough, but they weren't blown away (as was the case with, say, GW1), so it looks like there's a lot more work that has to happen on that front.

And the grass, don't forget the grass.

Anyway, Anet indeed had a start when making GW2. But how much advantage the start gave them is impossible to say.

[Naoroji]

Again, you're just giving a link of stuff we already know.

[4thVariety]

If the changes to GW2 are to be meaningful, then a lot of the stuff causes a ton of work:


Content Updates: How good are the tools to create a quick map with a working quest? You can crank out a "Fedex Quest" in 30 minutes with a good editor, but stories of Linsey seem to indicate that GW1 is way too complicated in that department and ArenaNet now hates FedEx quests. Rebuilding the tools to have killer productivity might just be one of the reason ArenaNet was silent for so long.

Multiplayer Missions: GW1 tries to entertain groups of 8 at a time. Group goes from A to B, monsters in the way, nothing can go wrong really. GW2 tries to dump hundreds of players into the same level and retain some sort of coherence between players. They will not go from A to B, they will be small groups of people at A and B at any time! GW2 does not want to feature the "grinding next to each other" of other MMOs. GW2 sounds more like 200 players being rather focused on one goal, driving it forward. It'll be no fun making sure the players know what the heck is going on after they log in, entice them to participate, spawn opposing monsters accordingly without looking dumb and communicating changing objectives. MAG was delayed for a reason!

Jumping: Are we talking nervous kid being overly excited jumping, or are we talking meaningful "jump&run traversal" of zones here? What happens if you miss a jump? Lag means input delay means less precision, so you will miss jumps! Is there a bottomless pit, will you respawn at a check point, what will the rest of the team be doing? Guild Wars Little Big Planet? In any case, the levels have to be build from ground up. Add climbing and it really gets tricky.

Underwater:Light conditions under water are not exactly easy to pull off. Water can be clear or murky, color palette can be rather plain or ultra colorful, the deeper you go the darker it gets, so the player has to manage light sources as well. Water restricts movement speed, one can't swim with clothes on, one definitely can't swim in armor, water can have strong currents, etc. etc. The list of potential water woes is endless and that is before the developers concede to have the player "Push X not to drown" every 20 minutes. Both graphics and animation department will have a lot of "fun". No wonder the underwater part got extended to a whole giant area according to ArenaNet.

Meanwhile the competition does not sleep. The world simulation aspect of MMOs will advance. Day/Night is just the beginning, the next generation of sandbox games will try to make GW2 look dated by introducing seasonal changes to the environment. Genres far more popular than RPGs will enter the same online space. How long until we see a Halo game with a simulated 8 mile frontline and 300 spartan players? How long until Valve's gamedirector AI can scale the game for 300 survivors of the zombie apocalypse? Who will have the power to go up against something called "Doom: Hell on Earth FPSMMO"?

If GW2 is to last as long as GW1, then Gw2 has to be so utterly rock solid at its coding base, that ArenaNet can compete with stuff like that WITHOUT starting over from the beginning. If anything, the GW2 engine has to be highly expandable. MMOs do not get finished, at some point they are released and sometime down the road they are abandoned. It's the result of trying to entertain for hundreds of hours instead of an 8h action game campaign.

[Gigashadow]

Originally Posted by 4thVariety

Meanwhile the competition does not sleep. The world simulation aspect of MMOs will advance. Day/Night is just the beginning, the next generation of sandbox games will try to make GW2 look dated by introducing seasonal changes to the environment. Genres far more popular than RPGs will enter the same online space. How long until we see a Halo game with a simulated 8 mile frontline and 300 spartan players? How long until Valve's gamedirector AI can scale the game for 300 survivors of the zombie apocalypse? Who will have the power to go up against something called "Doom: Hell on Earth FPSMMO"?

I don't know about this. Almost every MMO that's come out in the last few years has sucked, with little to no innovation in the genre happening. They've all been yet another reiteration of the same diku formula with modern graphics.

[Feathermoore]

Originally Posted by Gigashadow

I don't know about this. Almost every MMO that's come out in the last few years has sucked, with little to no innovation in the genre happening. They've all been yet another reiteration of the same diku formula with modern graphics.

Have you not been keeping up with the MMOs that are coming out just before or at the same time as GW2?

Its not going to be an easy start if they time it wrong.