19 replies to this topic

[Reverse Ghost]

Right now the average exchange rate is about 27 silver for 1 gem (selling the gem). Obviously the game just "released" and there will be more players in a day or so, probably a lot more.

I've never had an economist's intuition, so I figured I'd pose the question here. What do you think will happen in the coming months. Will gems be more valuable or less valuable than they are now as more players come in to the game and there's more gold floating around (and, of course, more gems being bought for cash)?

I'm sitting on 2200 gems right now and I don't really feel a huge desire to buy anything else from the shop, so I was thinking about flipping them for gold, but if I did it now I'd only get 6 gold, which doesn't seem like all that much. So if the exchange rate might be more favorable in the future, I could just hold the gems until then. They aren't burning a whole in my digital pocket or anything.

[Mitobunny]

I imagine as people get more silver/gold the value will skyrocket and then will drop and finally settle.

[Dulu]

Gems will be less valuable.

The main things people would pay for gems for are boosts, and those boosts become useless once the buying public has what they want.

There would be less demand, and an infinite supply, so prices will drop.

As for my advice to you.. Save your gems. Use them when new stuff is added to the shop.

Flipping them for 6 gold is absolutely silly.

Edited by Dulu, 26 August 2012 - 06:41 AM.

[Kirk]

I don't think they're going to change much, I think once they start to rise people will trade their gems for gold which I assume would bring it back down again.

Reason being nobody wants to buy gems in hopes of getting a decent amount of gold for them only to wait too long and get a lower price than they could in the first place.

It's a gamble.

That's the way I see it any way.

Edited by Kirk, 26 August 2012 - 06:45 AM.

[rotskrieg35]

I had to create an account to reply to this but this is a topic I've developed a fair amount of interest in.   I think the market will inflate near permanently (or at least for quite a while until it reaches a plateau which I believe is far far away).  I believe that because, as in all MMOs, the supply of gold is endless and will permanently inflate.  Because gold is endless, and constantly inflating, gems will continue to be purchased with in game gold, for ever increasing prices.  The spread between the buy and sell on gems is severe enough people will not be inclined to sell gems they bought for gold until the price has increase a very large amount or they have so many they don't feel like they will need to buy more. For example right now you can buy 100 gems for 40s or sell them for roughly 28s or a 12s/30% loss.

If we say that people think all the items in the market are stupid and buy none of them other then the account upgrades (which is unlikely) then we can guess people will buy 3 more character slots (1 per profession) 8 bag slots (1 extra per toon) and all 7 extra bank tabs for a total of 9800 gems.  That's enough gems for non "fluff" items I expect gem buying to continue for a long time before people "max out" and don't have anything worth buying with gems.

Given that total in game gold will continue to increase and gems continue to be purchased with gold then the costs of the gems should continue to rise.

I'd be very interested in alternative viewpoints on this.

[rotskrieg35]

rotskrieg35, on 24 September 2012 - 04:55 AM, said:

-SNIP-

Funny, less then an hour after I post that the price drops almost 4s per 100 gems.. lol

[XPhiler]

rotskrieg35, on 24 September 2012 - 04:55 AM, said:

I had to create an account to reply to this but this is a topic I've developed a fair amount of interest in.   I think the market will inflate near permanently (or at least for quite a while until it reaches a plateau which I believe is far far away).  I believe that because, as in all MMOs, the supply of gold is endless and will permanently inflate.  Because gold is endless, and constantly inflating, gems will continue to be purchased with in game gold, for ever increasing prices.  The spread between the buy and sell on gems is severe enough people will not be inclined to sell gems they bought for gold until the price has increase a very large amount or they have so many they don't feel like they will need to buy more. For example right now you can buy 100 gems for 40s or sell them for roughly 28s or a 12s/30% loss.

If we say that people think all the items in the market are stupid and buy none of them other then the account upgrades (which is unlikely) then we can guess people will buy 3 more character slots (1 per profession) 8 bag slots (1 extra per toon) and all 7 extra bank tabs for a total of 9800 gems.  That's enough gems for non "fluff" items I expect gem buying to continue for a long time before people "max out" and don't have anything worth buying with gems.

Given that total in game gold will continue to increase and gems continue to be purchased with gold then the costs of the gems should continue to rise.

I'd be very interested in alternative viewpoints on this.

I think you're spot on with your analysis but Arenanet might decide on a point where they stop the inflation from rising. Or well like you said there will be a plataue where very few will be willing to pay the asking price. Its hard to say really which will come first!

But I do agree, as people make more money especially once they get ingame expenses such as getting Exoitics and Rare Armorsets out of the way they're likely to buy more gems driving prices up.

[Lady Rhonwyn]

XPhiler, on 24 September 2012 - 06:58 AM, said:

But I do agree, as people make more money especially once they get ingame expenses such as getting Exoitics and Rare Armorsets out of the way they're likely to buy more gems driving prices up.

At which point it might be more profitable to buy gems with real money and sell that for ingame gold.  Which will drive the price down.  Paying 10 euro for 2g doesn't seem appealing to me, but when I might get 4 or 5 gold (or even more), I might be persuaded...  (gaining 4 to 5 gold with one to one and a half hour a day to play, with a very laid-back play style, isn't easy!)

[XPhiler]

Dulu, on 26 August 2012 - 06:40 AM, said:

Gems will be less valuable.

The main things people would pay for gems for are boosts, and those boosts become useless once the buying public has what they want.

There would be less demand, and an infinite supply, so prices will drop.

As for my advice to you.. Save your gems. Use them when new stuff is added to the shop.

Flipping them for 6 gold is absolutely silly.

Not disagreeing completely with what you're saying but I think you're missing a few factors. I think you're making the wrong assumption that the player base is static, which it is not, new players will join the game that will also need stuff like bank enlargement, new character slots, bag expansion etc.. Existant players will also roll alts that might also want said upgrades. not to mention Arenanet if they follow the same cycle as with GW1 are likely to put in various costumes on the cash shop periodically.

Dont think Gems will every really become worthless.

Lady Rhonwyn, on 24 September 2012 - 07:01 AM, said:

At which point it might be more profitable to buy gems with real money and sell that for ingame gold.  Which will drive the price down.  Paying 10 euro for 2g doesn't seem appealing to me, but when I might get 4 or 5 gold (or even more), I might be persuaded...  (gaining 4 to 5 gold with one to one and a half hour a day to play, with a very laid-back play style, isn't easy!)

Yes you're right, its very likely the market might keep itself in check without needing any external help simply by what you're saying!

[rotskrieg35]

Lady Rhonwyn, on 24 September 2012 - 07:01 AM, said:

At which point it might be more profitable to buy gems with real money and sell that for ingame gold.  Which will drive the price down.  Paying 10 euro for 2g doesn't seem appealing to me, but when I might get 4 or 5 gold (or even more), I might be persuaded...  (gaining 4 to 5 gold with one to one and a half hour a day to play, with a very laid-back play style, isn't easy!)

This is a good point, especially for people with larger amounts of disposable income (either a good job or limited expenses).  Lets go with option 1 and say you only get a few hours a week to play and earning the gold to buy the gems isn't palatable for you since the time investment is simply too high.  You would buy the gems because the cost/time ratio favors cost for you and this (supposedly) brings the gold cost of the gems down for the rest of us.  So the actual gold costs of gems can be effected by the number of players willing to spend real cash to buy the gems.

I still think (mainly due to younger players and players with large amounts of time, possibly even gold farmers) that the gold->gems side of the equation will be in much much higher demand then the cash->gems side, but I've been wrong before in these little economic MMO games

Edited by rotskrieg35, 24 September 2012 - 07:12 AM.

[gurunade]

After a week and a half or so of the game coming out I had bought some gems with gold. I bought them at 118 gems per 30s (I use 30s as my base). I saw them peak at 120 gems for 30s. Since then I've been checking and watching the amount of gems one can get for 30s, and it's disheartening for me personally. You can now get roughly 75 gems per 30s, which just doesn't make me want to buy any gems. I want to buy some but feel like I'm being gypped when I got a good deal at first, then the market settles down, and I don't get the same bang for my buck. I have not bought any since I got them at 118/30s.

*shrug*

[Neato]

I think you mean 27 silver for 100 gems, not 1 lol.

[Lady Rhonwyn]

rotskrieg35, on 24 September 2012 - 07:10 AM, said:

I still think (mainly due to younger players and players with large amounts of time, possibly even gold farmers) that the gold->gems side of the equation will be in much much higher demand then the cash->gems side, but I've been wrong before in these little economic MMO games

It's in ANet's advantage if the gem price is high.  That means more people will buy gems with real money instead of fake gold.  But not too high, as that will only cause resentment for the average player...    It's a small rope they have to walk there!

[XPhiler]

gurunade, on 24 September 2012 - 07:15 AM, said:

After a week and a half or so of the game coming out I had bought some gems with gold. I bought them at 118 gems per 30s (I use 30s as my base). I saw them peak at 120 gems for 30s. Since then I've been checking and watching the amount of gems one can get for 30s, and it's disheartening for me personally. You can now get roughly 75 gems per 30s, which just doesn't make me want to buy any gems. I want to buy some but feel like I'm being gypped when I got a good deal at first, then the market settles down, and I don't get the same bang for my buck. I have not bought any since I got them at 118/30s.

*shrug*

Money is just a representation of value .In the first week of the game it probably took you say 3 hours to get 30s. Now after a month It probably takes 1/2 then that to get 30s so while you're getting less per silver you're getting more overall value.

Essentially its like you're getting double wage but prices went up by 10% at the end you're getting a better deal.

This trend is likely to continue since as people get better at the game and more people get to max level, people will make more money and thus be able to pay more for things like gems. The price works on basic supply and demand rules as long as more people buy gems the price will continue to go up until more people sell gems then buy them at which point it will start to go down again.

[Arquenya]

I think it largely depends on what Anet will put in their gem store.

New hairstyles, remake options, town clothes, weapon and armour skins will all increase the demand for gems so the price will go up.

[makinaz]

It is unbelievably cheap to buy gems with gold right now. I don't know who is supplying me with these ridiculously cheap gems but I thank you, as do many other players probably.

The price will definitely go up.

[Lordkrall]

Not necessarily. Some people simply buy gems each month for the regular subscription cost, and most of them probably sell quite a few of them at the TP

[Lollie]

makinaz, on 24 September 2012 - 08:24 AM, said:

It is unbelievably cheap to buy gems with gold right now. I don't know who is supplying me with these ridiculously cheap gems

I'm guessing Anet is selling the gems to extract gold from the system. You'd think they'd hike the prices up a little, but I suspect they just want to get all the embarrassing exploit gold out of circulation and quickly start again =)

[Shiren]

Lollie, on 24 September 2012 - 08:27 AM, said:

I'm guessing Anet is selling the gems to extract gold from the system. You'd think they'd hike the prices up a little, but I suspect they just want to get all the embarrassing exploit gold out of circulation and quickly start again =)

Gems are cheapest on the weekend when lots of casuals are playing. They are trying to catch up or advance further so they buy gems to get gold to make up for the grinding they couldn't do early in the week. I seriously doubt ArenaNet is selling gems themselves, it's just that there are more people supplying gems right now.

I guess you might think this is cheap if you are constantly farming Orr chains or speed clears or any manner of exploits or grindy mentality, but to people playing normally without logging in for many hours a day, gem prices are quite high and are only going to get higher.

[Lord_Demosthene]

Gems should''ve risen in price long ago, and by much more. I get a feeling Anet is basically "selling" gold to artificially keep the perceived inflation down. To measure inflation there are much better metrics than gems at the moment, look no further than useless, most basic materials that universally rose in price despite skyrocketing supply, or crafted exotics which somehow maintain their price despite the fact less and less people need them (all the while amount of crafters increases steadily). Regardless, we have no way to discern actual market play from manipulation, so the point is mostly moot anyway. You can believe what you want, because you'll never know the truth.

Edited by Lord_Demosthene, 24 September 2012 - 11:21 AM.