15 replies to this topic

[NavyNoob]

Hello all,

The trading post was up for me for the first time yesterday and it provided me with an opportunity to start tracking data.  My education lies in business and the business of game particularly.  In as such, this kind of stuff is quite enjoyable to me.  It is my hope to keep up with weekly updates on the economy in the long term. (This is my first time trying to use images in a post so please excuse my mess)

In a stable economy we would see a steady increase in prices as we move from the tier 1 items on the left to the higher tiers on the right.  Guild Wars 2 however, has yet to stabilize and thus we see the results shown below.  The most interesting factor to me at the moment is that copper ore and platinum ore are currently trading at the same rate (hint: sell copper ore and buy platinum ore while you can).  

The logic behind this is simple, as with any economy supply and demand are the key factors.  In this case demand is the one true factor.  With the influx of new characters everyone is working on the same crafting skills and thus competing for the same items on the trading post.  As we move forward a couple of months we should see a chart that looks something like this:  

One thing to point out is the absence of the top tiered items from the above charts.  Both Orichalcum Ore and Gossamer Thread are trading at a premium of 425 and 850 copper respectively.  Including them on the charts would render them useless as they would dwarf the other tiers.

Update: WoW data included for reference.  Many posters have already pointed out some of the reasons why long term data will not be steady and this seems to provide proof of their point.  It's not all inclusive though.

Edited by NavyNoob, 05 September 2012 - 10:51 PM.

[Outt]

Just a question but....won't Copper(or jute, or any other Tier 1-> etc) actually go up again, after it drops a bit?

My only reasoning behind this is that, as more players level and grow out of the "Tier 1 zones", copper becomes less available(as items drops closer to your level and salvaging will no longer give copper, or other tier 1.  So as the influx of the playerbase as a whole moves towards the end-game spectrum, won't End-Tier mats go down in price and tier 1 go up? (Most likely middle tier would prob end up higher because theres always more new players/alts and End-game players than there are in-between.)

This may not be AS noticeable in GW since it doesn't punish you and actually is worthwhile to still do low level zones again, wether for map completion, skill points, etc.  But going back to farm isn't nearly as effective as a level 80, as it is as a level 10.

So anyway, just my point being, won't your future curve, actually dip the other way? or even may be a parabola of sorts?  End-game tier may only be a bit more due to the neeed for legendary items, and the sorts, so there may be a lot more to it.

Edit: Just as an example, last I checked, Copper was at 15c/each and Iron was at 4c Each, because the average level of the playerbase has shifted to the 30-60, rather than the mass of 1-20, and also because Iron is throughout a larger portion of levels it seems, and you tend to go through Tier 1 zones much faster just due to the leveling curve.

Edited by Outt, 05 September 2012 - 09:06 PM.

[MaddBomber83]

NavyNoob, on 05 September 2012 - 08:57 PM, said:

I disagree that the above chart is what we can expect in the future.  In every MMO that I have played in (simple market types, not like EVE), this chart is a U.

Lets break it down into what the Tiers are:
Tier 1 = New Crafting
Tier 2 = Break point in Crafting
Tier 3 = Void land
Tier 4 = Some useful gear
Tier 5 = End Game Gear

People will pay copper for Tier 1 matts because they want to level those crafts.  They skipped it while leveling and now want to give it a try.
People who did not craft while leveling, probably are not crafters.  So by Tier 2 you see them dropping out.  Tier 3 is a wasteland of only crafters pushing on.
Tier 4, in other games had your basic gear for high level characters so they can meet the req for a dungeon, this is where you see an uptick in demand as people outfit alts for this.  Tier 5 is where most the resources are traded as its all endgame stuff.


In recap, early level and late level crafting matts typically always have a demand.  The middle levels won't.  There are so many more elements yet to be seen in GW2 though.  It will be interesting seeing your charts mature.

I think the cloth/leather prices are interesting, where there is a dip may just be where most people are leveled at (these area all drops/salvage yes?) where the ore you can go get.

[Incendia]

One thing you have to take into account is WvW. Loot from WvW is detirming by the player's level that you just killed. You kill a level 80, you get level 80 loot, you kill a level 1, you get level 1 loot. As more and more people hit the cap the loot they drop will be more and more level 80 stuff. So things like Silk and Gossamer may not be as expensive as you think. Still pretty expensive, but not very.

Also, it might be worth tracking the value of Globs of Ectoplasm (you need 5 of these to craft lvl80 exotics, and you get these items by salvaging lvl70+ rare and exotic items)

At the moment they are selling for 19-23 silver each, though I predict that down the line the prices will rise.

Edited by Incendia, 05 September 2012 - 09:41 PM.

[Outt]

MaddBomber83, on 05 September 2012 - 09:28 PM, said:

I disagree that the above chart is what we can expect in the future.  In every MMO that I have played in (simple market types, not like EVE), this chart is a U.

Lets break it down into what the Tiers are:
Tier 1 = New Crafting
Tier 2 = Break point in Crafting
Tier 3 = Void land
Tier 4 = Some useful gear
Tier 5 = End Game Gear

People will pay copper for Tier 1 matts because they want to level those crafts.  They skipped it while leveling and now want to give it a try.
People who did not craft while leveling, probably are not crafters.  So by Tier 2 you see them dropping out.  Tier 3 is a wasteland of only crafters pushing on.
Tier 4, in other games had your basic gear for high level characters so they can meet the req for a dungeon, this is where you see an uptick in demand as people outfit alts for this.  Tier 5 is where most the resources are traded as its all endgame stuff.


In recap, early level and late level crafting matts typically always have a demand.  The middle levels won't.  There are so many more elements yet to be seen in GW2 though.  It will be interesting seeing your charts mature.

I think the cloth/leather prices are interesting, where there is a dip may just be where most people are leveled at (these area all drops/salvage yes?) where the ore you can go get.

I either see it this way, or a an upside down U like I said, where its more based on the playerbase and average levels than it is the stages of crafting.

More 1-10 and 80 players than 11-79, thus less mats such as iron, silver, etc etc so the price of these may be higher.

Wether the player level or what you described is more prevalent, I'm not sure about, but I remember playing WoW, the very earliest mats were dirt cheap, as were end-game mats, but random mats in the middle were few and far between on the AH, and one could basicly control the market for those items as well.

Incendia, on 05 September 2012 - 09:40 PM, said:

One thing you have to take into account is WvW. Loot from WvW is detirming by the player's level that you just killed. You kill a level 80, you get level 80 loot, you kill a level 1, you get level 1 loot. As more and more people hit the cap the loot they drop will be more and more level 80 stuff. So things like Silk and Gossamer may not be as expensive as you think. Still pretty expensive, but not very.

Also, it might be worth tracking the value of Globs of Ectoplasm (you need 5 of these to craft lvl80 exotics, and you get these items by salvaging lvl70+ rare and exotic items)

At the moment they are selling for 19-23 silver each, though I predict that down the line the prices will rise.

Also, as far as those end-game ectoplasms, I think price will rise, then steadily decline.  Rise as the playerbase hits 80, and everyone wants their 80 gear and legendaries right away, then slowly fall as demand falls, more and more players acquire the items necessary.

[StaplerPie]

Tier 5 isn't endgame gear.  Tier 6 (gossamer and orichalcum) is endgame, and you don't even have their prices on there.

Tier 1 will always be more expensive than Tier 2 or 3, because Tier 1 is only found in lvl 1-15 zones, which most people leave fairly quickly.

Little supply, but lots of demand, because people want to level up their crafting.

[Outt]

StaplerPie, on 05 September 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

Tier 5 isn't endgame gear.  Tier 6 (gossamer and orichalcum) is endgame, and you don't even have their prices on there.

Tier 1 will always be more expensive than Tier 2 or 3, because Tier 1 is only found in lvl 1-15 zones, which most people leave fairly quickly.

Little supply, but lots of demand, because people want to level up their crafting.

If you read what he says below it, he explains why they aren't on the graph.

[NavyNoob]

Outt, on 05 September 2012 - 09:05 PM, said:

Just a question but....won't Copper(or jute, or any other Tier 1-> etc) actually go up again, after it drops a bit?

My only reasoning behind this is that, as more players level and grow out of the "Tier 1 zones", copper becomes less available(as items drops closer to your level and salvaging will no longer give copper, or other tier 1.  So as the influx of the playerbase as a whole moves towards the end-game spectrum, won't End-Tier mats go down in price and tier 1 go up? (Most likely middle tier would prob end up higher because theres always more new players/alts and End-game players than there are in-between.)

This may not be AS noticeable in GW since it doesn't punish you and actually is worthwhile to still do low level zones again, wether for map completion, skill points, etc.  But going back to farm isn't nearly as effective as a level 80, as it is as a level 10.

So anyway, just my point being, won't your future curve, actually dip the other way? or even may be a parabola of sorts?  End-game tier may only be a bit more due to the neeed for legendary items, and the sorts, so there may be a lot more to it.

Edit: Just as an example, last I checked, Copper was at 15c/each and Iron was at 4c Each, because the average level of the playerbase has shifted to the 30-60, rather than the mass of 1-20, and also because Iron is throughout a larger portion of levels it seems, and you tend to go through Tier 1 zones much faster just due to the leveling curve.

It seems you may be on to something.  My guess would be that copper will be the most steady in the long run but it will still see a drop.  I've never really tracked any of this information in other MMO's so this is all new to me.  Some of the considerations such as iron availability in more areas will probably have some effect as you mentioned.  

Guild Wars 2 will probably be a bit different though as there is no level cap for zones and people can keep coming back.  Also for a while at least people will be creating alts to journey through the low level zones again.  Overall you bring up some pretty solid points.

StaplerPie, on 05 September 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

Tier 5 isn't endgame gear.  Tier 6 (gossamer and orichalcum) is endgame, and you don't even have their prices on there.

Tier 1 will always be more expensive than Tier 2 or 3, because Tier 1 is only found in lvl 1-15 zones, which most people leave fairly quickly.

Little supply, but lots of demand, because people want to level up their crafting.

Tier 6 was purposely left off of the chart because the prices on them are so much higher than the other items atm.  It is listed at the bottom of the original post

[Outt]

Time will tell, and until then, it should be fun to watch and see what happens.

Being that GW2 is so different, and doesn't punish for completing say, Asura starter zone at level 80, it's hard to determine what may happen.  I think what I pointed out MAY be the general trend(just basing off other MMO's) but it may not be as drastic as it is in those MMO's.  But, only Data will show

Doesn't the game actually track market prices? or is this only on Gem -> Gold -> Gem transactions?

[NavyNoob]

MaddBomber83, on 05 September 2012 - 09:28 PM, said:

I disagree that the above chart is what we can expect in the future.  In every MMO that I have played in (simple market types, not like EVE), this chart is a U.

Lets break it down into what the Tiers are:
Tier 1 = New Crafting
Tier 2 = Break point in Crafting
Tier 3 = Void land
Tier 4 = Some useful gear
Tier 5 = End Game Gear

People will pay copper for Tier 1 matts because they want to level those crafts.  They skipped it while leveling and now want to give it a try.
People who did not craft while leveling, probably are not crafters.  So by Tier 2 you see them dropping out.  Tier 3 is a wasteland of only crafters pushing on.
Tier 4, in other games had your basic gear for high level characters so they can meet the req for a dungeon, this is where you see an uptick in demand as people outfit alts for this.  Tier 5 is where most the resources are traded as its all endgame stuff.


In recap, early level and late level crafting matts typically always have a demand.  The middle levels won't.  There are so many more elements yet to be seen in GW2 though.  It will be interesting seeing your charts mature.

I think the cloth/leather prices are interesting, where there is a dip may just be where most people are leveled at (these area all drops/salvage yes?) where the ore you can go get.

Added some WoW data that seems to support some of your information.

[mickst3r8]

My education lies in business and the business of game particularly
lol...
Well my JOB is in financial analysis and I can tell you that your data and information is incorrect.

The others who reply in this post pretty much sums up how the economy in the game will most likely be.

The only point you got right would be "as with any
economy supply and demand are the key factors" which is economy 101 and everybody knows this already.

Demand for materials will fluctuate in early (starting to craft) and late game (end gear crafting), it will be stable or flat mid-game on average.

Edited by mickst3r8, 05 September 2012 - 11:06 PM.

[NavyNoob]

mickst3r8, on 05 September 2012 - 11:05 PM, said:

My education lies in business and the business of game particularly
lol...
Well my JOB is in financial analysis and I can tell you that your data and information is incorrect.

The others who reply in this post pretty much sums up how the economy in the game will most likely be.

The only point you got right would be "as with any
economy supply and demand are the key factors" which is economy 101 and everybody knows this already.

Demand for materials will fluctuate in early (starting to craft) and late game (end gear crafting), it will be stable or flat mid-game on average.

I've admitted in previous replies that the way things work in an MMO environment are new to me and thus I don't claim to have all the answers.  Rather my intent was to start a discussion on the topic.  So far the responses to this thread have been very helpful and interesting to say the least.

[MaddBomber83]

NavyNoob, on 06 September 2012 - 12:41 AM, said:

I've admitted in previous replies that the way things work in an MMO environment are new to me and thus I don't claim to have all the answers.  Rather my intent was to start a discussion on the topic.  So far the responses to this thread have been very helpful and interesting to say the least.

I have to agree with you Navy, it will be interesting how this turns out and I've subscribed to your thread.  Thank you for the data you collected and the charts.

I'm particularly interested in how the harvested by node vs harvested by drop works out.  To my knowledge, you can't just go out and get cloth/leather but you can ore.  I know leveling several crafts at once I've just had to prioritize them all, as in, my armor smith gets all the matts, whatever she can't use my leather worker gets, and what he can't use my tailor gets.. nothing.

[evilbob]

One factor to remember is that copper is also used for jewelcrafting, and the usefulness of jewelcrafting is extremely high.  This will probably continue to inflate copper's value while leaving something like iron low.

[NavyNoob]

evilbob, on 07 September 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

One factor to remember is that copper is also used for jewelcrafting, and the usefulness of jewelcrafting is extremely high.  This will probably continue to inflate copper's value while leaving something like iron low.

Copper has definitely been holding steady up to this point.  And as you mentioned it will probably be strong for the long run.  I just wandered into the second leveling area and excitedly ran up to an ore node only to discover that it was iron.  What a disappointment, lol.

[Lootifer]

Hopefully they rebalance t2 items; supply and demand are so out of kilter right now.

(that is soft wood and iron anyone?)