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Precursor R & D Thread


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#361 Limbolein

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:52 AM

Then it's not 5.67% exotics but 22.7% (100 exotics in 440 tries).
It also means that at the 441st try you forgot one weapon. This would have been the precursor! ;)

#362 Limbolein

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 09:54 AM

What is the best way to use karma when trying to get a precursor? Maybe something like buying cheap green greatswords, throwing them into the forge to get rares, then throw the rares in again? Or buy rare armour, salvage for ectos, sell and buy rare greatswords from profit? Has anyone found a good strategy?

Edited by Limbolein, 16 January 2013 - 09:54 AM.


#363 Stigma

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 10:01 PM

the video of the guy throwing 1500 rare greatswords yielding no precursor was a huge let down.

#364 matsif

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 06:00 AM

View PostLimbolein, on 16 January 2013 - 09:54 AM, said:

What is the best way to use karma when trying to get a precursor? Maybe something like buying cheap green greatswords, throwing them into the forge to get rares, then throw the rares in again? Or buy rare armour, salvage for ectos, sell and buy rare greatswords from profit? Has anyone found a good strategy?

you can't use karma to buy stuff and salvage it.  you can put it into the forge and hope for a higher quality item, but it's not definite and from experience is nowhere near profitable.  anet wants karma and coin to be a separate currency, so any hope to get gold from karma is risking a ban.

Edited by matsif, 17 January 2013 - 06:00 AM.


#365 Limbolein

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 09:26 AM

If I buy rares, put them into the forge and get rares/exotics to sell at the TP I will never get banned. Is there any rule that says it's forbidden?

And as long as I can't use my karma for anything else it will always be profitable if I get at least something out of it. My question was about finding the best way to do it.

#366 rotsono

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:15 PM

View PostLimbolein, on 17 January 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

If I buy rares, put them into the forge and get rares/exotics to sell at the TP I will never get banned. Is there any rule that says it's forbidden?

And as long as I can't use my karma for anything else it will always be profitable if I get at least something out of it. My question was about finding the best way to do it.

I mostly buy the 42k karma armor and just threw it into the mystic forge often i get something named worth up to 15g ~ works fine for me i dont need my karma anymore and i get tons from dungeons n' stuff.

#367 escada_assassin

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:18 PM

View Postrotsono, on 17 January 2013 - 01:15 PM, said:

I mostly buy the 42k karma armor and just threw it into the mystic forge often i get something named worth up to 15g ~ works fine for me i dont need my karma anymore and i get tons from dungeons n' stuff.

So it's not forbidden to buy karma armor pieces, throw them into the forge and sell whatever you get from the forge?

#368 Gilles VI

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:22 PM

View Postescada_assassin, on 17 January 2013 - 01:18 PM, said:

So it's not forbidden to buy karma armor pieces, throw them into the forge and sell whatever you get from the forge?

Why would it be?

View Postmatsif, on 17 January 2013 - 06:00 AM, said:

you can't use karma to buy stuff and salvage it.  you can put it into the forge and hope for a higher quality item, but it's not definite and from experience is nowhere near profitable.  anet wants karma and coin to be a separate currency, so any hope to get gold from karma is risking a ban.

Well if you keep your karma you get nothing, if you throw it in mystic forge, you will get something to sell.
So whatever you get, technically you made a profit. :)

#369 escada_assassin

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:22 PM

I don't know, I was just asking, since I was under the impression that it was forbidden to transform karma into gold.

P.S. Never tried it, but I'm thinking about it, since I have more karma than I need. XD

Edited by escada_assassin, 17 January 2013 - 01:22 PM.


#370 Norah

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 10:03 PM

- 149 tries with lv80 rares
- 35 exotics

No precursor :(

#371 Limbolein

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 08:51 AM

The WvW rare 2H weapons cost around 34k karma I think. So you need to spend 136k karma for 1 try to get a precursor.

If you buy 4 exotic armour pieces for 42k each you spend 168k karma and get a guaranteed exotic. If selling this averages ~3 gold you can buy at least 8 rare 2H weapons from the TP. So you have 2 tries for a precursor while only spending 30k more karma. I guess that's the better way to do it now.

Edited by Limbolein, 18 January 2013 - 08:51 AM.


#372 escada_assassin

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 08:58 AM

View PostNorah, on 17 January 2013 - 10:03 PM, said:

- 149 tries with lv80 rares
- 35 exotics

No precursor :(

Of course no precursor. You didn't really think that most players who got theirs, got it after so few tries, did you? There are lots of people outthere who actually tried throwing 1.500 greatswords in the msytic forge and got nothing out of it. Right now I think that most players who got theirs, got it from the Karka Chest, some exploits or by paying for it with real cash (and yeah, I know people who spent real money to get fancy weapons, legendary weapons included).

P.S. The only thing that annoys the crap out of me in this game thus far is the precursor and the fact that is so RNG based that you could have 1.000.000 tries and never get it or you could get it from the first try or never get it and have to work your ass off for the next 6-12 months to get just a damn precursor.

Edited by escada_assassin, 18 January 2013 - 09:00 AM.


#373 Dominox

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 09:01 AM

Maybe he tried before? :o:O MAGIC!

#374 escada_assassin

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 09:28 AM

I also had somewhere around 150 tries and got nothing memorable out of it. I reached the conclusion that it's definetely not worth it, since there is no specific recipe for getting one for sure and in the end, by trying and trying, you could lose so much gold that you could have just spend on buying one. Unless I have like a thousand dollars and no use for those in real life, there's no other way. Keep your gold, sell everything you get, never buy anything, again save every copper you get and maybe in the next 6 months you'll have enough to buy a precursor. They said something about working on a alternative of getting a precursor? Yeah, right. Probably they'll do something so complicated that you'll see spending 1.000 dollars as nothing compared to it.

Edited by escada_assassin, 18 January 2013 - 09:30 AM.


#375 Omigawd

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:11 PM

Crafted 100 rare staves, threw them all into the mystic toilet and got this:
Posted Image
The Legend and 9 other exotics.

#376 escada_assassin

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:13 PM

View PostOmigawd, on 18 January 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

Crafted 100 rare staves, threw them all into the mystic toilet and got this:
Posted Image
The Legend and 9 other exotics.

Gz to you, but you do know it's all about luck, right? Not an exact recipe.

#377 Omigawd

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:26 PM

View Postescada_assassin, on 18 January 2013 - 12:13 PM, said:

Gz to you, but you do know it's all about luck, right? Not an exact recipe.
I am aware it is all luck, I just felt like dumping 30g in the forge.

#378 Norah

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:35 PM

Did another 165 (1256 gs total) tries today. 39 exotics. I think I'll stop and save the money to get one from the TP..AFTER I toss in my exotics.

Edited by Norah, 18 January 2013 - 05:46 PM.


#379 escada_assassin

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 09:20 AM

View PostNorah, on 18 January 2013 - 05:35 PM, said:

Did another 165 (1256 gs total) tries today. 39 exotics. I think I'll stop and save the money to get one from the TP..AFTER I toss in my exotics.
I'm rather surprised by your patience - I wouldn't try so many GS in a million years. Chances are you double the amount and you're still not gonna get one. TP is the answer. Though it makes me wonder - if everyone tries to buy one from TP, who will be the supplier then?

#380 mpq1671

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 11:19 AM

Still, it's all about luck. Dusk is about ~600g at this time, Dawn - ~400g. If one manages to forge 300g gs', still might get some profit out of it, or simply - broke out ;( My guildie got his Dusk for a 2nd attempt, forging A-A-A-A crafted rares. I decided to try my luck, 50g and no results so far, gonna reach 100g and sit in the corner to cry eventually. Zomorro you b*tch.

#381 Kada

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 12:52 PM

I can absolutely vouch for the Carrion Krait Crooks - I bought 100g worth of cleric's staves of air (approx. 250-ish), got about 5 exotics. Needless to say, my butt was hurting. It was kitten. Came to take a peek @ this thread, bought another 100g worth of Carrion Krait Crooks (approx. 200), shoved them through the forge and was massively impressed with the results!

I not only got my The Legend like I was hoping for on my LAST 4 lvl 80 rares, I got an Imryldeen, Memory of the Sky and a Bramblethorne along with about 15 other exotics. So it seemed not only was my rate of named exotics significantly higher, so was my actual rate of receiving exotics when the Carrion Krait Crooks was used as the base rare.

Also of note: I was crafting in LA proper for my server, not in overflow.

All up I spent 200g on rares, which means with the current trading post prices on The Legend, I paid significantly less than the asking prices. Selling the exotics back afterwards reclaimed approx. 49 gold of that.


Posted Image

Edited by Kada, 19 January 2013 - 01:08 PM.


#382 chullster

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 03:11 PM

View PostKada, on 19 January 2013 - 12:52 PM, said:

I can absolutely vouch for the Carrion Krait Crooks ......

What do you mean by that? you used all the same type of rares in the MF and the crafted rares (CKC) gave better results than the ones you bought on the TP?

#383 Gilles VI

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 03:21 PM

View Postescada_assassin, on 19 January 2013 - 09:20 AM, said:

I'm rather surprised by your patience - I wouldn't try so many GS in a million years. Chances are you double the amount and you're still not gonna get one. TP is the answer. Though it makes me wonder - if everyone tries to buy one from TP, who will be the supplier then?

Exactly what you think, when all people just buy on TP supply will sink, which in turn would gambling in mystic forge profitable.
At the moment, with current prices, even if drop rate is 0,4% it's still (statistically) better to use mystic forge than TP.
If drop rate is lower than 0,3% you're better of buying from TP atm.

#384 Kada

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 11:22 PM

View Postchullster, on 19 January 2013 - 03:11 PM, said:

What do you mean by that? you used all the same type of rares in the MF and the crafted rares (CKC) gave better results than the ones you bought on the TP?

What I mean by that is exactly what I posted - as per my post, I had significantly better luck with 100g worth of Carrion Krait Crooks than I did with 100g of any other level 80 rare. The Krait Crooks were more expensive by about 5 silver each which meant I got less of them for the money, but the output on them was far better than anything I got from the Cleric's Staves of Air.

Edited by Kada, 19 January 2013 - 11:22 PM.


#385 samd227

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 05:03 AM

200g, however many GS that is..
all of the exotics (i was very lucky with exotics) and rares i got, i put back in...
Nada :3
genies suck :<

#386 danitheqt

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 09:44 AM

Alright, i got kinda bored, so i started gambling again. It's somewhat tempting, lol.

Anyways, i made some good profit, and thought i#d share my experiences.


INPUT:
Overall, ive thrown 11823 rare lvl 80 weapons into the Mystic Forge (counting in the rares i got back).
Also counting in the ~3,5k rares ive mentioned before (page 12).

OUTPUT:
Dusk (mentioned before, p12)
Dawn
Spark
Colossus
Zap
Legend, Legend, Legend
+ an additional 568 exotics.


How I gambled:
  • Always used 4 weapons of the same type.
  • I've mainly used A+A+B+B, but sometimes also A+A+A+A
  • ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. ;) )
Some insights:
  • Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 19,49% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
  • It doesn't seem to make a difference, wheter you're using A+A+A+A or A+A+B+B or A+B+C+D (at least it didnt for me)
  • Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,27% (~370forges, equals 1480rares). Why is that chance still so high !??!?!?! Well, it kinda got "distorted" when i got zap/spark/colossus pretty much right after each other. I had some spare mithril ingots + wood planks left and thought i'd try out some other weapons. I got all 3 of them within only 125 forges. (Noteworthy: maybe the chance really gets higher, if you keep swapping the weapons ?? Could of course all be based on luck tho..)
  • Staves seem to be the most efficient weapon when it comes to profitmaking. Exotics get bought quicker and yield a higher profit, costs to craft them are alot lower (10c/ea or even 9c/ea for elder wood log!)
  • Still have 300exotics that i cant sell yet, since i'd undercut myself. If you're going to gamble too, make sure to have enough spare money, cause alot of it gets bound to mats and exotics!

:cool:

Edited by danitheqt, 25 January 2013 - 09:47 AM.


#387 Keaghan

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 08:08 PM

View Postdanitheqt, on 25 January 2013 - 09:44 AM, said:

Alright, i got kinda bored, so i started gambling again. It's somewhat tempting, lol.

Anyways, i made some good profit, and thought i#d share my experiences.


INPUT:
Overall, ive thrown 11823 rare lvl 80 weapons into the Mystic Forge (counting in the rares i got back).
Also counting in the ~3,5k rares ive mentioned before (page 12).

OUTPUT:
Dusk (mentioned before, p12)
Dawn
Spark
Colossus
Zap
Legend, Legend, Legend
+ an additional 568 exotics.


How I gambled:
  • Always used 4 weapons of the same type.
  • I've mainly used A+A+B+B, but sometimes also A+A+A+A
  • ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. ;) )
Some insights:
  • Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 19,49% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
  • It doesn't seem to make a difference, wheter you're using A+A+A+A or A+A+B+B or A+B+C+D (at least it didnt for me)
  • Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,27% (~370forges, equals 1480rares). Why is that chance still so high !??!?!?! Well, it kinda got "distorted" when i got zap/spark/colossus pretty much right after each other. I had some spare mithril ingots + wood planks left and thought i'd try out some other weapons. I got all 3 of them within only 125 forges. (Noteworthy: maybe the chance really gets higher, if you keep swapping the weapons ?? Could of course all be based on luck tho..)
  • Staves seem to be the most efficient weapon when it comes to profitmaking. Exotics get bought quicker and yield a higher profit, costs to craft them are alot lower (10c/ea or even 9c/ea for elder wood log!)
  • Still have 300exotics that i cant sell yet, since i'd undercut myself. If you're going to gamble too, make sure to have enough spare money, cause alot of it gets bound to mats and exotics!
:cool:


Wow, that's some great info, and a lot of money. You wouldn't happen to be giving away a Legend would you xP

I'm getting close to completely the rest of the items I need to complete my Legendary. Got my Gift of Fortune and Mastery, just need to complete my Gift of Bifrost and then start throwing staves in...

Good luck to everyone else!

#388 Limbolein

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:36 AM

View Postdanitheqt, on 25 January 2013 - 09:44 AM, said:

  • ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. ;) )
I did the math in the other thread. With your high number of tries we can be pretty sure that the chance of getting an exotic in a rare try is ~20%. That means rares are the better choice if 6 rares are cheaper than one exotic.

#389 Mythzje

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 03:48 PM

I'm feeling so f**king lucky.. 15 tries:
Posted Image

Edited by Mythzje, 02 February 2013 - 03:50 PM.


#390 Benji Tshi

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:28 AM

As of today, i've thrown away roughly 800 greatsword in the Mystic Forge. I usually get around 20 to 30% exos (=40 to 60) which allows me to get back around 40 to 50% of the money spent (or not earned) on the mats. It means that until now, i've spent (or, again, didn't earn) around 180g by chasing Dusk through the Mystic Forge. Considering thatit's selling for 500g at least, it's still not a waste...yet

EDIT : my numbers are not very accurate because, sadly, i didn't loged anything anywhere. But i do remember that i always get more than 10 exos on a 200 GS basis (=50 tries). I think i've did it 4 times (or maybe 5, not sure) and my last try last night gave me 14 exos for 50 tries.

Edited by Benji Tshi, 04 February 2013 - 11:31 AM.





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