510 replies to this topic

[danitheqt]

Mythzje, on 02 February 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

I'm feeling so f**king lucky.. 15 tries:

Gz!

I think this shouldve been mine tho .
Ive continued gambling, threw in another 3500 rare lvl 80 greatswords (counting in the ones i got back from forging). (costs roughly 38s/ea, alltogether ~1070g)
Output: ~180 exotics, worth roughly 540g (net profit)
- 0 precursors

So ye, im sitting on a 530g loss, am kinda disheartened atm.. :S

/e: fixed numbers

Overall statistics:

Quote

INPUT:
Overall, ive thrown 15323 rare lvl 80 weapons into the Mystic Forge (counting in the rares i got back).

OUTPUT:
8 precursors
+ an additional 748 exotics.

-> Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 19,73% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
-> Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,209% (~479forges, equals 1916rares).

Edited by danitheqt, 04 February 2013 - 03:22 PM.

[Nax]

The thing that impresses me the most about this thread, is you guys' bank roll!!

I've been playing since launch, and I just barely cracked over 100g. I mean, I've probably spent 40g over the course of playing, but if anyone has the kind heart to PM me and tell me what I'm missing to even be able to afford this level of gambling, I would be forever grateful!!

[Benji Tshi]

Nax, on 04 February 2013 - 11:19 PM, said:

The thing that impresses me the most about this thread, is you guys' bank roll!!

I've been playing since launch, and I just barely cracked over 100g. I mean, I've probably spent 40g over the course of playing, but if anyone has the kind heart to PM me and tell me what I'm missing to even be able to afford this level of gambling, I would be forever grateful!!

Roughly 1600 hours...

[matsif]

Nax, on 04 February 2013 - 11:19 PM, said:

The thing that impresses me the most about this thread, is you guys' bank roll!!

I've been playing since launch, and I just barely cracked over 100g. I mean, I've probably spent 40g over the course of playing, but if anyone has the kind heart to PM me and tell me what I'm missing to even be able to afford this level of gambling, I would be forever grateful!!

I've done all of mine in small batches over the course of the game, so I never am really hurting for cash.  I never do more than 10g at a time to keep it within about 2 days worth of dungeon running to recoup all losses and then some, and I gamble like 2 weeks apart from my last gamble, so I'm always making more cash than I gamble away.

[Nax]

matsif, on 05 February 2013 - 03:57 AM, said:

I've done all of mine in small batches over the course of the game, so I never am really hurting for cash.  I never do more than 10g at a time to keep it within about 2 days worth of dungeon running to recoup all losses and then some, and I gamble like 2 weeks apart from my last gamble, so I'm always making more cash than I gamble away.

Yeah, I try to do a lot of Fractal runs, cross my fingers for Rares and Exotics to sell on the TP.
Then vendor all my blues/greens.

Money just trickles soooo slooooow.

[safer88]

Hi all guys, yesterday i started gambling too in the mystic toilet! =/
Begin with around 340 gold, i used all of it to buy mats and craft rare swords,  got around 20 left when i ended..  2 hours of work around 100 exotics and no precursor.. only bad taste left in my mouth! I placed all the exotics back in the trading post and log out .
Made around 150 gold out of those...
This morning i log in and after thinking about it i decide to stop this madness!... but i see i have some mats left for 7 rare sword and i say... well no way im wasting this.... and  gw0146.jpg   163.37K   267 downloads

soo in the end... i lost about 200 (crafted about 8/900 sword) gold and i guess it was worth the trouble...i wish you all good luck!

[Zakki]

I've finally menaged to get my spark 3 days ago, after 2 months and half of semicasual work. I do not have an exact estimate of how many try i did, but i usually did 3-4 tries with rares each day, about 15-20g once a week (another 30-40 tries midweek when mats prices were lower) and about 1 try with exotics x week using cof/ac tokens. I've kept some data on money spent, about 300+g (starting from mid-november), end in the end i found mine in the last try after throwing about 30 rares.
From my experience, togheter with my buddy's, i'd suggest using rares and selling exotics good luck everyone!

PS fu Zomorros

Edited by Zakki, 08 February 2013 - 02:26 PM.

[escada_assassin]

Zakki, on 08 February 2013 - 02:25 PM, said:

I've finally menaged to get my spark 3 days ago, after 2 months and half of semicasual work. I do not have an exact estimate of how many try i did, but i usually did 3-4 tries with rares each day, about 15-20g once a week (another 30-40 tries midweek when mats prices were lower) and about 1 try with exotics x week using cof/ac tokens. I've kept some data on money spent, about 300+g (starting from mid-november), end in the end i found mine in the last try after throwing about 30 rares.
From my experience, togheter with my buddy's, i'd suggest using rares and selling exotics good luck everyone!

PS fu Zomorros

Off topic : Omfg i'm still laughing cause of your PS. Well said, well said. May I quote you on the future? )

On topic : gz everyone who got their precursor and still hoping to get mine someday within the next 2.000 years or so.

[danitheqt]

Quick update:
I'm at 6350 rare GS now, still_no_*ing_precursor.

Totally broke and quite pissed.

Quote

PS fu Zomorros

ye........

[Shadok]

128 rare greatswords (32 forge uses) = 0 precursors
40 exotic greatswords (10 uses) = 0 precursors

Edited by Shadok, 11 February 2013 - 04:29 PM.

[danitheqt]

Update...

alltogether: 21.530 Rare lvl 80s (calculating in the ones i got back)
1091 exotics
9 precursors

~598forges = 1 precursor.

also noteworthy: i havent gotten a single precursor from the last 7955 Rares. I've never done this with the intention of making profit but rather to get a correct dropchance. Still, i didnt expect to make a big loss, which unfortunately happend now.
Seriously, 8k rares, this variance is ridiculous..

Edited by danitheqt, 12 February 2013 - 10:54 PM.

[gamblers_luck]

30 Exotics in nothing. :-(

[Benji Tshi]

I know it's mainly about huge number probabilities but....I just threw away 100 rare lvl80 this morning. I got nothing from the 15 first tries, giving me à 0% chance for rare to exotic rate. Then i headed back to my bank (i couldn't carry more then 60 weapons) to take the 40 left weapons. I got 8 exotics from those 10 tries, which means 80% chance for rare to exotic....Ridiculous

[P4ndora]

^ That's called RNG and yes, rng is ridiculous.

[amiee taw]

Here is my data:

2800 Crafted rares, Sold all exotics , thats near ~800  trys , no precursor.
Overall lost Gold  230g.

[danitheqt]

Okay, i fortunately recovered from a huge loss (gambling with GS) by getting spark/colossus/legend afterwards.
But beeing that close to bankruptcy, I decided to never ever gamble again.


So here's my final statistics:

INPUT:
24.796 rare lvl 80 weapons (counting in the rares i got back).


OUTPUT:
Dusk
Dawn
Spark x2
Colossus x2
Zap
Legend x4
Lover
+ an additional 1248 exotics.


Process:

• Always used 4 weapons of the same type
  
• I've mainly used A+A+B+B, but sometimes also A+A+A+A
  
• ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. )

Some insights:

• Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 20,13% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
  
• It doesn't seem to make a difference, wheter you're using A+A+A+A or A+A+B+B or A+B+C+D (at least it didnt for me)
  
• Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,1936% (equals ~517 forges)
  
• Staves seem to be the most efficient weapon when it comes to profitmaking. Exotics get bought quicker and yield a higher profit, costs to craft them are lower (daggers come closest to staves, gs afterwards)
  
• If you're going to gamble too, make sure to have enough spare money, cause alot of it gets bound to mats and exotics! (Really ALOT...)

RNG at its finest:

• Dusk: took me ~ 3550 rares
  
• Dawn  ~ 50 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 950rares
  
• Spark  ~ 780 rares
  
• Zap  ~ 330 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 3200 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 1500 rares
  
• Colossus  ~ 400 rares
  
• Lover  ~ 2450 rares
  
• Spark  ~ 8900 rares (ive used 8200 GS rares without any precursor, and then swapped to daggers....)
  
• Colossus  ~ 280 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 2400 rares

Hope this helps some ppl. Since I decided to stop gambling, there will be no further input from my side.
GL!

Edited by danitheqt, 17 February 2013 - 09:48 AM.

[Myugen]

danitheqt, on 17 February 2013 - 09:47 AM, said:

Okay, i fortunately recovered from a huge loss (gambling with GS) by getting spark/colossus/legend afterwards.
But beeing that close to bankruptcy, I decided to never ever gamble again.


So here's my final statistics:

Some insights:

• Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,1936% (equals ~517 forges)

Hope this helps some ppl. Since I decided to stop gambling, there will be no further input from my side.
GL!

You kind sir...are my hero.

[Illein]

Thanks, great statistics, it's mere anecdotic evidence of course but still the closest we have to actual data!

[amiee taw]

danitheqt, on 17 February 2013 - 09:47 AM, said:

Okay, i fortunately recovered from a huge loss (gambling with GS) by getting spark/colossus/legend afterwards.
But beeing that close to bankruptcy, I decided to never ever gamble again.


So here's my final statistics:

INPUT:
24.796 rare lvl 80 weapons (counting in the rares i got back).


OUTPUT:
Dusk
Dawn
Spark x2
Colossus x2
Zap
Legend x4
Lover
+ an additional 1248 exotics.


Process:

• Always used 4 weapons of the same type
  
• I've mainly used A+A+B+B, but sometimes also A+A+A+A
  
• ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. )

Some insights:

• Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 20,13% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
  
• It doesn't seem to make a difference, wheter you're using A+A+A+A or A+A+B+B or A+B+C+D (at least it didnt for me)
  
• Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,1936% (equals ~517 forges)
  
• Staves seem to be the most efficient weapon when it comes to profitmaking. Exotics get bought quicker and yield a higher profit, costs to craft them are lower (daggers come closest to staves, gs afterwards)
  
• If you're going to gamble too, make sure to have enough spare money, cause alot of it gets bound to mats and exotics! (Really ALOT...)

RNG at its finest:

• Dusk: took me ~ 3550 rares
  
• Dawn  ~ 50 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 950rares
  
• Spark  ~ 780 rares
  
• Zap  ~ 330 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 3200 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 1500 rares
  
• Colossus  ~ 400 rares
  
• Lover  ~ 2450 rares
  
• Spark  ~ 8900 rares (ive used 8200 GS rares without any precursor, and then swapped to daggers....)
  
• Colossus  ~ 280 rares
  
• Legend  ~ 2400 rares

Hope this helps some ppl. Since I decided to stop gambling, there will be no further input from my side.
GL!

Huh , that encourage me to keep going, but  atm my statics rnt that good

Crafted 3100 Rares,  0 precursors ( All daggers btw ) . Im not couting the /4.

Lost near 260g atm.

Edited by amiee taw, 17 February 2013 - 01:46 PM.

[Tillers]

I only needed 6 tries with rares for my Zap, then 2 hours later I looted a dusk from a random mob in cs, sold it and it helped me alot with my legendary, currently throwing in about 20 greatswords a day into the forge to get a dusk/dawn to sell, to lazy to farm cs for hours, can get the money needed for 20 greatswords from 1 AC all paths run. Even if I spend like 200g making a dusk/dawn ill still get a profit of like 300/400g or more, from doing very little.

But my luck now is shit.

[danitheqt]

Tillers, on 17 February 2013 - 01:11 PM, said:

I only needed 6 tries with rares for my Zap, then 2 hours later I looted a dusk from a random mob in cs, sold it and it helped me alot with my legendary, currently throwing in about 20 greatswords a day into the forge to get a dusk/dawn to sell, to lazy to farm cs for hours, can get the money needed for 20 greatswords from 1 AC all paths run. Even if I spend like 200g making a dusk/dawn ill still get a profit of like 300/400g or more, from doing very little.

But my luck now is shit.

Wait.. you got zap after 6 tries and dusk as a random drop, and you consider your luck to be shit?

@amiee taw: tbh, if i look at these statistics, they rather disencourage me. But thats just personal taste i guess. Those 8900rares.. fml haha.

[amiee taw]

danitheqt, on 17 February 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

Wait.. you got zap after 6 tries and dusk as a random drop, and you consider your luck to be shit?

@amiee taw: tbh, if i look at these statistics, they rather disencourage me. But thats just personal taste i guess. Those 8900rares.. fml haha.

Spark on TH is like 660g, 3100 crafted r roughly ~260g.  

Anyways started with 400g , 140g left .... I dont know if that will be enough.

[danitheqt]

amiee taw, on 17 February 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

Spark on TH is like 660g, 3100 crafted r roughly ~260g.  

Anyways started with 400g , 140g left .... I dont know if that will be enough.

How can 3100 crafted lvl 80 rares cost 260g?

[amiee taw]

danitheqt, on 17 February 2013 - 04:18 PM, said:

How can 3100 crafted lvl 80 rares cost 260g?

3100 crafted costs more than 260g, of course , but that's not the cost of 3100 , thats what i lost after selling every exotic.

Lets see , i craft 200 to 300 daggers ( ~100g buying mithril and other materials ) and i sell every exotic that i get back from MF.

I normaly lose 30 to 10g for 300 daggers , sometimes i win 10g (very rare cases ) . Get gold back  and repeat the operation.

Edited by amiee taw, 17 February 2013 - 04:56 PM.

[Gilles VI]

danitheqt, on 12 February 2013 - 10:32 PM, said:

also noteworthy: i havent gotten a single precursor from the last 7955 Rares. I've never done this with the intention of making profit but rather to get a correct dropchance. Still, i didnt expect to make a big loss, which unfortunately happend now.
Seriously, 8k rares, this variance is ridiculous..

I agree, I can live with the theoretical drop chance, but the variance if way to big..

[Myugen]

Curious to know what crafting greatswords is at now.Is it less than the 47s they go for on TP? I've been rather discouraged from crafting them, and buying them kinda leaves me at doing few daily attempts.

[danitheqt]

Of course.
GS needs: 24 mithril * 0,27s + 12 elder wood log * 0,11s + 15 t5 mats * 1,95s = 37,05s/ea (all prices = according to realistic buyoffers atm)

Edited by danitheqt, 18 February 2013 - 12:41 PM.

[Ehragus]

Put another 500 Gs in the mystic toilet this morning. Still no precursor.
I hate RNG. And i Hate people with crazy luck.

[WildeThe Great]

Ehragus, on 22 February 2013 - 11:15 AM, said:

Put another 500 Gs in the mystic toilet this morning. Still no precursor.
I hate RNG. And i Hate people with crazy luck.

hate the game not the player

[dzanikken]

Ehragus, on 22 February 2013 - 11:15 AM, said:

Put another 500 Gs in the mystic toilet this morning. Still no precursor.
I hate RNG. And i Hate people with crazy luck.

Just buy the damn thing then ...