199 replies to this topic

[Bennyandthejets]

With the introduction of the new Halloween items inside Black Lion chests I wanted to create a thread dedicated to providing the playerbase with accurate data & determining the % chance of acquiring said skins.  If you decide to contribute I must ask "Please only provide factual data & do not exaggerate/inflate numbers"  Provided the vast majority of submitted data is correct we can begin to determine the actual % chance a player has of acquiring said skins per chest.

As a additional study, please also report if you loot one of the other new items that have been added recently.  Permanent Bank, Permanent Black Lion Trader etc

Unfortunately at this time I cannot contribute personally as I am at work, but feel free to add your own.  I will do my best to update daily provided the opportunity arises.

Updated

Black Lion Chests Opened: 2,027

Probability of a Halloween skin using current sample data: .0182

2 Deathly Pauldrons
0 Deathly Shoulderpads
0 Deathly Mantle

0 Deathly Avian Pauldrons
3 Deathly Avian Shoulderpads
1 Deathly Avian Mantle

2 Deathly Bull Pauldrons
1 Deathly Bull Shoulderpads
2 Deathly Bull Mantle

4 Scythe Staff Skin
2 Greatsaw
4 Grinning Gourd Rifle
1 Grinning Ghastly Shield
3 Severed Dagger
3 Chainsword

9 Unknown Skins - Description was to vague to categorize accurately

1 "Reusable Mystery Tonight" (I assume tonic) -Submitted by Rene

1 Permanent Bank
1 Permanent Trader

Last data entry: Nox_Aeterna

Please do not discuss controversial nature of Black Lion chests in this topic.  I understand there is a interest in said discussion but this is not the thread for it.  Thank you

Lastly, if you decide to make a additional submission after you already posted please add a separate post & do not edit your existing post as I am just going down the line when making additions.  Please also be specific when posting which skin you acquire so I can allocate them correctly.

Edited by Bennyandthejets, 24 October 2012 - 09:19 AM.

[Sponx]

157 chests opened, 0 skins.
Guildie got greatsword skin after 23 chests.

[BeyondThyGrave]

15 chests. no skins. 1 each of perm bank and black lion trader.

[caveslug]

15 opened

staff and dagger skin

[Juminator]

32 opened , zero event items, theres a war in the official forums right now, this chest crap is blowing right in Anets face as we speak, good for the players , maybe they will learn to not screw us over again on the next event.

Note: personally im not very mad because after all i didnt spent a cent on keys, i farmed them all and i can acept the rng box thingh but the rng right now its near scam levels chance, theres people raging in the oficial forums that spent fortunes and got nothing, thats just wrong and i feel for them.

Edited by Juminator, 23 October 2012 - 09:10 AM.

[Scruffnut]

Are these event items from chests that have been looted since the update or can they come from any chests?

[Gli]

16 chests opened today, nothing new or otherwise interesting showed up.

[Lordkrall]

Juminator, on 23 October 2012 - 09:08 AM, said:

32 opened , zero event items, theres a war in the official forums right now, this chest crap is blowing right in Anets face as we speak, good for the players , maybe they will learn to not screw us over again on the next event.

Note: personally im not very mad because after all i didnt spent a cent on keys, i farmed them all and i can acept the rng box thingh but the rng right now its near scam levels chance, theres people raging in the oficial forums that spent fortunes and got nothing, thats just wrong and i feel for them.

Ah yes of course. It is great for the players that ArenaNet gets less money so that they can't keep developing the game. Totally agree.


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Have yet to open a chest, will open up quite a few when I get home later today (have 251 chests) and report back.

[tufy]

RNG is RNG, you can open 1 and get it, you can open a thousand and not see it. It's one's own fault to gamble real life money for a CHANCE to get something.

I do have one question, though - are they permanent or only for the duration of the event?

Edited by tufy, 23 October 2012 - 09:25 AM.

[Lordkrall]

tufy, on 23 October 2012 - 09:25 AM, said:

RNG is RNG, you can open 1 and get it, you can open a thousand and not see it. I do have one question, though - are they permanent or only for the duration of the event?

They are permanent.

[Thunderhead]

Lordkrall, on 23 October 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

Ah yes of course. It is great for the players that ArenaNet gets less money so that they can't keep developing the game. Totally agree.

I'm sorry but, developing what exactly? The bots are still running rampant, the bugs are still there and the TP is still being monopolized thanks to a few quick players that brought PvP thinking into a PvE enviroment, catching everyone by surprise. Right now the thread in the official forums is 9 pages long, so we can't chalk it up to a vocal minority... the players are siomply losing trust in Anet, as it is beginning to get VERY manipulative

[BeyondThyGrave]

I'm curious if magic find gear has an affect on the outcome.

Thunderhead, on 23 October 2012 - 09:28 AM, said:

I'm sorry but, developing what exactly? The bots are still running rampant, the bugs are still there and the TP is still being monopolized thanks to a few quick players that brought PvP thinking into a PvE enviroment, catching everyone by surprise. Right now the thread in the official forums is 9 pages long, so we can't chalk it up to a vocal minority... the players are siomply losing trust in Anet, as it is beginning to get VERY manipulative

developing this event for one

[Lordkrall]

Thunderhead, on 23 October 2012 - 09:28 AM, said:

I'm sorry but, developing what exactly? The bots are still running rampant, the bugs are still there and the TP is still being monopolized thanks to a few quick players that brought PvP thinking into a PvE enviroment, catching everyone by surprise. Right now the thread in the official forums is 9 pages long, so we can't chalk it up to a vocal minority... the players are siomply losing trust in Anet, as it is beginning to get VERY manipulative

Do you think this event turned up by someone simply clapping their hands?

9 pages full och the same people saying the same thing.
There are over 2 million accounts. As long as there are less than 1 million whining and complaining it is a minority.
At the moment it is an extremely small minority. Mainly consisting of people that have whined about every single thing since before the game was even released.

[Juminator]

Lordkrall, on 23 October 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

Ah yes of course. It is great for the players that ArenaNet gets less money so that they can't keep developing the game. Totally agree.


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Have yet to open a chest, will open up quite a few when I get home later today (have 251 chests) and report back.

I was talking how Anet may be a litle more carefull and "generous" the next time around to avoid the huge bad publicity thats going on right now because for this one the damage is done already.

Edited by Juminator, 23 October 2012 - 09:35 AM.

[FoxBat]

Thunderhead, on 23 October 2012 - 09:28 AM, said:

I'm sorry but, developing what exactly? The bots are still running rampant, the bugs are still there and the TP is still being monopolized thanks to a few quick players that brought PvP thinking into a PvE enviroment, catching everyone by surprise. Right now the thread in the official forums is 9 pages long, so we can't chalk it up to a vocal minority... the players are siomply losing trust in Anet, as it is beginning to get VERY manipulative

Cause and effect IMO. GW2 gems have been doing miserably for a while now. 2 Million box sales alone did not save ToR versus development costs, it will not work for GW2 either. When they can't afford to employ a large enough live team versus expansion development, this kind of crap is what you get.

But, I don't blame anyone for not wanting to put their money up before Anet have anything to show for it. That kind of thinking is what you should expect from a customer base that doesn't believe in subs.

[Thunderhead]

Don't get me wrong I love this game, and since I'm more or less a fan of Tim Burton, I like the general feel of the halloween event. BUT we can argue that it goes back to the philosophy established by the same company, during Guild Wars 1, regarding holiday items. Making the holiday items on the same level of rarity as a precursor strikes a very strange note to me...

[Lordkrall]

Juminator, on 23 October 2012 - 09:31 AM, said:

I was talking how Anet may be a litle more carefull and "generous" the next time around to avoid the huge bad publicity thats going on right now.

How is it not generous to give more or less everything for free?
You don't need to pay a single gem in order to join in the festival.

[Mizzory]

5 chest, no skins.

[Vilaptca]

37 chests opened.  No skins.

[Thunderhead]

14 chest, nothing but tonics and boosts. I have heard horror stories ingame about 50-100 euros being dumped for keys and still returning nothing.

[Bennyandthejets]

While I am not going to state my opinion of A-Net's business practices lets stay on topic & stick with the numbers.  This thread is dedicated to providing factual data on players probability of obtaining said items from Black Lion chests.  I know this is a controversial topic but please keep those discussions to other threads.

Edited by Bennyandthejets, 23 October 2012 - 09:58 AM.

[Arioch]

3 chests, 1 weapon skin (the dagger one)

[RecentlyTaken]

15 chests, 1 scythe skin, nothing else of note.

[zwei2stein]

Thunderhead, on 23 October 2012 - 09:38 AM, said:

14 chest, nothing but tonics and boosts. I have heard horror stories ingame about 50-100 euros being dumped for keys and still returning nothing.

I agree, this is terrible failure.

On party of person who spent 100e on unknown droprate items.

Was it so hard to wait a few days for wiki to have full statistics before making informed purchase? For this thread to produce some information?

Now, I hate the fact that about 1/2 of event stuff is on TP, but blowing money on gamble and being surprised you wasted it is not horror story. It it /point /laugh story.

Edited by zwei2stein, 23 October 2012 - 10:35 AM.

[Arquenya]

Bennyandthejets, on 23 October 2012 - 08:25 AM, said:

Black Lion Chests Opened: 332

Probability of a Halloween skin using current sample data: .015%

1 Halloween Greatsword
1 Halloween Staff
2 Halloween Dagger
1 Halloween Scythe

5 skins out of 332 chest isn't .015% but more like 1.5% so one in every 66.

[Opollo]

Lordkrall, on 23 October 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

Ah yes of course. It is great for the players that ArenaNet gets less money so that they can't keep developing the game. Totally agree.


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Have yet to open a chest, will open up quite a few when I get home later today (have 251 chests) and report back.

Well...are you actually using REAL money to pay for your keys? Or just trading gold for gems?

...Because I really hope people not spending any REAL money would will keep their "support Anet" comments to themselves.

Edited by Opollo, 23 October 2012 - 01:17 PM.

[Bennyandthejets]

Arquenya, on 23 October 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:

5 skins out of 332 chest isn't .015% but more like 1.5% so one in every 66.

.015 = 1.5%

[Draugadan]

Bennyandthejets, on 23 October 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

.015 = 1.5%

.015 has the percent sign next to it in the OP.

[AMIX_GW2]

6 Chests - Zero Skins

[Lordkrall]

Opollo, on 23 October 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Well...are you actually using REAL money to pay for your keys? Or just trading gold for gems?

...Because I really hope people not spending any REAL money would will keep their "support Anet" comments to themselves.

Of course, I have bought rather much gems since release, never payed a single silver for gems, all gems bought by real money.