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Predictions #4 - week 11/09/12

wvw predictions wild mass guessing

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#1 G L J

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 05:55 PM

Week four, and we don't see much change. Servers have generally stabilized in their rankings without seeing much general movement. Delta ratings are slowly but surely dropping - while there are changes, there generally wasn't enough to make for a volatile shift in the rankings (with the exceptions of Henge of Denravi and Eredon Terrace - RIP).

This week we only saw shifts in four tiers out of the eight. The top two and the bottom two tiers have seen zero ranking changes. Out of the 24 servers, only nine of them have changed positions. Out of those nine servers, only Yak's Bend, Darkhaven, and Ehmry bay have actually increased in tier. Henge of Denravi, Eredon Terrace, and Dragon Brand all drop down a tier.

Information is again provided by http://mos.millenium.org/matchups#NA as of 12:05 pm CST.

Spoiler


*note* Rankings are subject to change, however at this point in time, they likely will not affect the individual matches. The largest potential change would be Dragon Brand outscoring Eredon Terrace at the last minute and remaining in tier five. In which case, the two will swap positions.

edit: Predictions
Spoiler

Edited by G L J, 08 November 2012 - 06:08 PM.


#2 Quietnine

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:06 PM

boring. i was really hoping SoS would make it to T1. I do feel a bit bad for T2 though, the current power distribution makes it look like it will be damn hard for SoR or IoJ to escape.

#3 Sayura

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:07 PM

Will SoS move up and BG move down? I'm looking forward to playing with SoS but not sure if they are going to be in it next week.

#4 Global_GW2

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:09 PM

This may be the first time I've thought this, but next week I'd predict a sweep for the green servers, unless DB pushes up into T5, in which case I'd go with NSP in T6. I really thought SoS was going to overtake BG in rating, but it's not looking likely now.

#5 Sayura

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:11 PM

View PostGlobal_GW2, on 08 November 2012 - 06:09 PM, said:

This may be the first time I've thought this, but next week I'd predict a sweep for the green servers, unless DB pushes up into T5, in which case I'd go with NSP in T6. I really thought SoS was going to overtake BG in rating, but it's not looking likely now.

No offense to blackgate but SBI and JQ are a little sick of each others faces. :P

#6 G L J

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:12 PM

View PostSayura, on 08 November 2012 - 06:07 PM, said:

Will SoS move up and BG move down? I'm looking forward to playing with SoS but not sure if they are going to be in it next week.

Blackgate would have to throw the game away at this point, which is something I don't expect them to do. There is a 9 point rating differential, but there has only been a combined 64 point change at this point. The ratings/rankings are stabilizing and, while they look like close tiers, the delta movements simply haven't been very impressive this week.

Edited by G L J, 08 November 2012 - 06:12 PM.


#7 Vihar

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:12 PM

View PostGlobal_GW2, on 08 November 2012 - 06:09 PM, said:

This may be the first time I've thought this, but next week I'd predict a sweep for the green servers, unless DB pushes up into T5, in which case I'd go with NSP in T6. I really thought SoS was going to overtake BG in rating, but it's not looking likely now.

  I'd say this is a very good observation and good call.

  I think BG's epic EU push yesterday may have been enough to keep SoS at bay in T2.

#8 Beastgate

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:13 PM

Blackgate's EU guilds tried very hard yesterday and managed to snag around +400 ppt for a few hours. They really want to stay in tier 1.
Also, War Machine is taking a short break next week, other servers will take advantage of this, so I don't expect SBI to be first at the start of the match, but we will make a comeback.

#9 G L J

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:15 PM

View PostBeastgate, on 08 November 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Blackgate's EU guilds tried very hard yesterday and managed to snag around +400 ppt for a few hours. They really want to stay in tier 1.
Also, War Machine is taking a short break next week, other servers will take advantage of this, so I don't expect SBI to be first at the start of the match, but we will make a comeback.

You heard it here first folks! Stormbluff Isle in tier 2 next week! :P

#10 Hennet

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:15 PM

SoS was looking forward to a T1 matchup (T2 isnt putting up much of a fight at the moment) but alas, someone in T1 allowed Blackgate to get a 520 PPT for a while before logging back on and shutting them town. Would have been an interesting change.

#11 Beastgate

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:17 PM

View PostHennet, on 08 November 2012 - 06:15 PM, said:

SoS was looking forward to a T1 matchup (T2 isnt putting up much of a fight at the moment) but alas, someone in T1 allowed Blackgate to get a 520 PPT for a while before logging back on and shutting them town. Would have been an interesting change.
Oh sure, blame us for that. If you had stomped your enemies better you would have made it to tier 1.

#12 Mondy

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:20 PM

View PostBeastgate, on 08 November 2012 - 06:17 PM, said:

Oh sure, blame us for that. If you had stomped your enemies better you would have made it to tier 1.

You're number 1 on the ladder. You're supposed to be able to stomp everyone into the ground.

#13 RivenVII

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:23 PM

Let's not have trolling in this thread, please.

I am very happy to see Yak's and FA moving up the tier list again. I loved playing against you guys :) Very big fan.

#14 Sayura

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:23 PM

View PostMondy, on 08 November 2012 - 06:20 PM, said:

You're number 1 on the ladder. You're supposed to be able to stomp everyone into the ground.

Sorry but BG had that tick for maybe a few hours which quickly changed when the NA guilds came on.

When you have such a big lead over the opposing teams most people are just going to pve and level.

#15 Global_GW2

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:31 PM

View PostSayura, on 08 November 2012 - 06:11 PM, said:

No offense to blackgate but SBI and JQ are a little sick of each others faces. :P

No offense taken. I personally would have preferred a drop to T2 and see some new faces as well. SBI and JQ are tough opponents and can be rough on PUG morale. No biggy though. BG will make a showing where it can and fight the good fight.

View PostHennet, on 08 November 2012 - 06:15 PM, said:

SoS was looking forward to a T1 matchup (T2 isnt putting up much of a fight at the moment) but alas, someone in T1 allowed Blackgate to get a 520 PPT for a while before logging back on and shutting them town. Would have been an interesting change.

It sounds like you're disappointed, but I promise you, no server "allowed" anything to happen, other than the natural trends towards the end of the week. The difference was probably the core BG WvWers, who zone in and have fun regardless of the score. This allowed BG to pick up some PPT when SBI kicked back and relaxed a bit. Normal stuff and not planned or coordinated in any way.

#16 PvPD00R

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:36 PM

View PostHennet, on 08 November 2012 - 06:15 PM, said:

SoS was looking forward to a T1 matchup (T2 isnt putting up much of a fight at the moment) but alas, someone in T1 allowed Blackgate to get a 520 PPT for a while before logging back on and shutting them town. Would have been an interesting change.

I am going to disagree.

SoR and IoJ both put up fights at various moments during the T2. If at any moment SoS had lost focus, SoR could have passed SoS. It has taken an extreme amount of WvWvW focus by all the SoS guilds in their respective maps to hold on to the lead.

I am thankful Beastgate decided it wanted to stay in T1, because SoS guilds are still honing strategy. I believe JQQ and SBI will be more than SoS can handle, especially with the SoS deadspot in EU coverage time. SoS NA will not be able to take back territory against equally fierce JQQ and SBI NA squads, so positions lost in EU will have a massive detrimental effect on SoS NA coverage times. SoS really needs some EU coverage to compete above T2.

#17 Cruyelo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 06:40 PM

If the current scores hold up, I will have correctly predicted 7 tiers out of 8 last week. Funnily enough, it's actually Tier 7 that I missed.

I'm not really interested in next week matches tho. The only one that I really wonder about is TC vs CD vs YB.
We know TC is weak during the day. They'd lose the map to FA during the day, they currently lose it to CD, even to HoD every once in a while. TC wins by being strong late in the afternoon, during NA primetime and for a while during the night.

Here's my question :
What will be the effect of having 3 strong servers? Will it make it harder for TC to win a match by being strong during primetime and at night? 3 good servers could reduce the PPT of TC when they're strong, and leave them behind during the day.
Or will having 2 servers who are stronger during the day end up with both of them splitting their PPT lead, making it harder for them to take a lead over TC during daytime.
Will both of those things balance each others?

I'm interested in the match to see the actual answer.

#18 Soulstitchmmo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 07:56 PM

Yeah, was really hoping to get a chance to see SoS fight. This is depressing news. Let's hope BG shows up to more fights next week so it's not JQ vs SBI all week again.

#19 Wotah

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 08:25 PM

View PostSayura, on 08 November 2012 - 06:11 PM, said:

No offense to blackgate but SBI and JQ are a little sick of each others faces. :P

Wherever I go I see about 15 Charr hammer warriors from LoD coming at me along with some people from CRNG.  It's like they have a radar only for me...

:qq: :D

#20 Lady Lisz

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:45 PM

in my POV ofc, it will be better for BG to drop to T2... because then, most of your pugs/players that stopped playing WvW after last wk and this wk will most likely be looking forward to participate and play and sort of have a fresh WvW air (lol)... rather than staying in T1 and having to face SbI and JQ for the 3rd time (coz im pretty sure some might not even want to play this coming wk BUT ofc idk know that since this is my point of view)... i am not saying it might be the same result but at least this will MAYBE allow most of them to have LESS pressure to stay/win T1 rather than just go out there and have fun and recollect what should/could/would have done the past matches instead while in T2... this happened to our server SbI and i can honestly say that it really was a good thing, everyone needed that break (i think ofc :P)

#21 xSuicide

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:45 PM

with the departure of some NA guilds, BG's NA prime time became a little more chaotic (more pugs w/o organization replaced people of the same guild in the same VOIP that try to organize pugs). It's unfortunate BG went from a strong NA presence server with weak other times to a "weaker" (relatively) NA presence server with incredible EU and Oceanic presence. I guess that's how servers evolve over time.

personally, i hope BG drops to T2 to have some time to reorganize before going back to T1. I will be rooting for you guys. It was a fun run.

See You Space Cowboy.

#22 Vihar

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:47 PM

View PostSoulstitchmmo, on 08 November 2012 - 07:56 PM, said:

Yeah, was really hoping to get a chance to see SoS fight. This is depressing news. Let's hope BG shows up to more fights next week so it's not JQ vs SBI all week again.

  Killing JQ is still the most fun. I never get tired of it.

   I also never get tired of trying to steal lowlands supply before the [FIRE] zerg shows up. That's tough to do, but fun to try.

  At any rate, one thing JQ and SBI guarantee is some good PVP for the full week, so we really should be happy.

#23 PunNyJR

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:13 PM

Geez that SENT guy really talk big a lot and i never seen that guild tag around.

btw SOS can only get max around 2043 and it usually doesnt go more than that. I know because We were in that situation. U just need to beat BG to down lower than SOS.

Edited by PunNyJR, 08 November 2012 - 10:13 PM.


#24 Jacbo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:20 PM

Predictions (it's no fun if you just pick the favorites):

SBI -> BG -> JQ
(T2 omitted)
YB -> TC -> CD
FA -> DH -> ET
EB -> Mag -> ET
DB -> NS -> SF
GoM -> BP -> AR
DR -> KN -> FC

--------------------

I do find it interesting that everyone is lamenting SoS not being in T1, or BG needing a respite in T2. Personally I'm curious to find out if there is a substantive difference between the guild ability and alliance structure between the tiers anymore. Because frankly, IoJ has had a harder time with SoS this week and last week, and I've seen more in the way of impressive tactics, than I ever saw during the week we fought JQ/SBI. This is not to say JQ/SBI aren't good servers, they are, or that they don't have strong guilds, they do, but holding T1 up on a pedestal seems silly to me. IoJ, through its week of bandwagoners, proved that the main coverage difference lies in the fact that T1 is T1 is T1, so people will be there or come over.

BG never played in a legitimate "new age" T2 matchup, they got a freebie against HoD and ET before moving up. SoS has yet to be in T1. SoR has yet to be in T1. The only time IoJ was in T1 the match was close for the majority of the week before later week coverage proved to be the difference. I'm not saying that SBI/JQ don't deserve their spots, they've earned them, and they're the gold standard at the moment. But I question how much of that is the comparative guilds and highly organized militia, and how much is due to the natural coverage gap filling attraction of consistency in T1.

#25 Soulstitchmmo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:39 PM

That's why SoS in T1 is better over all. BG didn't earn it's spot in T1, it got handed it's spot. SoS is earning it's spot. Will be a change in dynamic. And I fear next week will be a repeat of this week across the board, the winner being determined by the boredom of it's regular WvW'ers.

#26 G L J

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:46 PM

View PostSoulstitchmmo, on 08 November 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

That's why SoS in T1 is better over all. BG didn't earn it's spot in T1, it got handed it's spot. SoS is earning it's spot. Will be a change in dynamic. And I fear next week will be a repeat of this week across the board, the winner being determined by the boredom of it's regular WvW'ers.

to be fair, Sea of Sorrows got almost 100% of it's newfound NA dominance from server transfers.

#27 Mixology

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:47 PM

View PostSoulstitchmmo, on 08 November 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

That's why SoS in T1 is better over all. BG didn't earn it's spot in T1, it got handed it's spot. SoS is earning it's spot. Will be a change in dynamic. And I fear next week will be a repeat of this week across the board, the winner being determined by the boredom of it's regular WvW'ers.

All this talk about "earning spots" implies that WvW is more than having better 24 hour coverage.  It really isn't.

If we win T2, it will because we had better coverage and more people on the map, nothing more.  If we lose T1, it will mean we had less coverage and less people on the map, nothing more.

I feel like so many WvW people take themselves way too seriously.

#28 Soulstitchmmo

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:56 PM

View PostMixology, on 08 November 2012 - 10:47 PM, said:

All this talk about "earning spots" implies that WvW is more than having better 24 hour coverage.  It really isn't.

If we win T2, it will because we had better coverage and more people on the map, nothing more.  If we lose T1, it will mean we had less coverage and less people on the map, nothing more.

I feel like so many WvW people take themselves way too seriously.

Once EU and NA servers are Merged (or NA/EU guilds realize that they are all the same datacenter) coverage will be more spread, and even. Guess what that means? Skill/Organization will win matches.

It's pretty close to that point now. There is far less pvd going on than people like to admit. Full server means people just aren't showing up to fight.

#29 Dark

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 11:14 PM

Come on SoS we believe in you! Kick BG off of tier 1! we want a different fight! :D

#30 PunNyJR

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 11:30 PM

what make JQ guys think they earn the spot more than Bg .... they also got stomped last week and disappeared and it was only BG and SBI.

and this week they are no where close to SBI neither....





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