15 replies to this topic

[Renevas]

So I've bought 2 of everything. Watch for the skins to triple in price within a few days of the November 15th, if not immediately from the mad rush of last minute buyers. Long term price rise should be upwards of 10x+ for the cheap stuff and at least 5x (up to 150g-ish) for already expensive skins like the greatsaw. Whether you want them for yourself or to turn for profit, NOW is the time to buy while they're still cheap. Search "skin" on the trading post.

For anyone who hasn't been following this stuff... The exclusive halloween skins that are only available via black lion chests are being cut off on the 15th. Once that happens we have a similar situation to the Mystic Forge Conduits where they become rare and exclusive and just go up and up in price since there's no new supply. Only this stuff can't be used and resold like the MFC, so supply should drop even faster. For a little preview of what is to come, you can see the false alarm buyout that happened on Nov 1st before most realized their availability was extended. They gave us two more weeks, but that final day is upon us now and the panic buying will begin soon.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/36340
(Change to 1month view)

On the topic of holding these skins long term, I was given a supposed inside tip. So long as anet keeps an independent holiday development team we can expect fresh new content for each halloween including new skins rather than recycling the old. All this means, if true, is rather than selling them in 6-8 months for 10x the price, they can be held indefinitely and potentially have no upper limit as they become more and more scarce. Worth considering for long term investment.

[danitheqt]

Posting this in as many threads as possible surely helps.

Edited by danitheqt, 14 November 2012 - 09:48 PM.

[squalleonahar]

But....But Anet say there will be cooler skin in Lost shore Event BLC, it's might glowing too.
And.....more cooler skin in Chrismast event BLC.
And.....
And.....

Edited by squalleonahar, 14 November 2012 - 10:52 PM.

[arogar4]

You get 1 skin in about 100 chests and 1 key cost more than 1g. I have seen that a lot of skins are now for 20s and the greatswords cost about 28g. In the 15th we won´t have more and they are very very cheap now.
I have invest 120g because their price will rise a lot.

And about the Lost Shore Event, I think that skins will be at shop and not in the black lion chests.

Edited by arogar4, 14 November 2012 - 10:58 PM.

[NeoSaigon]

arogar4, on 14 November 2012 - 10:55 PM, said:

You get 1 skin in about 100 chests and 1 key cost more than 1g. I have seen that a lot of skins are now for 20s and the greatswords cost about 28g. In the 15th we won´t have more and they are very very cheap now.
I have invest 120g because their price will rise a lot.

And about the Lost Shore Event, I think that skins will be at shop and not in the black lion chests.

From what I've seen from GW2, the majority of players, guessing 80% do not even have 20g.  How, I have no idea >.<, but that seems to be the case.  The rest of the market is controlled by the speculators.  The max price an item will reach is shortly at the beginning of speculation, while all the TPers are buying up stock.  The price will then start to decline since these people have no one to sell it to.  

Basically, it's a pyramid scheme, with the early adopters profiting, selling to the late joiners who won't be able to recoup the costs.  Long-term speculation, for the most part, always fails in GW2.  I see these skins as no exception.  People just don't want them, and the people that do want them, already have them.  Maybe the price will double in 3-6 months, but I personally do not want to hold onto them for that long.

[Strife025]

Nope.com

Won't happen in the near future, maybe a few months from now.

[Knuckledust13]

What makes you think people will even remember these weapons names in a few months? Hell, even in a few weeks? Your estimations are also absurd and have no base lol.

[arogar4]

Knuckledust13, on 16 November 2012 - 12:40 PM, said:

What makes you think people will even remember these weapons names in a few months? Hell, even in a few weeks? Your estimations are also absurd and have no base lol.

People will remeber them because now are new skins on the tp and in  one month we will have more new skins.
When people look for  new skins they write the word skin and all skins appear, new and old, so nobody will forget old skins.
Moreover, I have seen that every hour one expensive skin of each type is sold, 10 hours ago there were 103 skins of greatswords, now there are only 93. Same is happening with shields, now there are only 53 skins.
If you wait 1 or 2 weeks you will see that  the price of expensive skins like the greatsword will rise x3 and more.

Edited by arogar4, 16 November 2012 - 04:09 PM.

[NeoSaigon]

arogar4, on 16 November 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

People will remeber them because now are new skins on the tp and in  one month we will have more new skins.
When people look for  new skins they write the word skin and all skins appear, new and old, so nobody will forget old skins.
Moreover, I have seen that every hour one expensive skin of each type is sold, 10 hours ago there were 103 skins of greatswords, now there are only 93. Same is happening with shields, now there are only 53 skins.
If you wait 1 or 2 weeks you will see that  the price of expensive skins like the greatsword will rise x3 and more.

How many of those are bought by hoarders though?  Hoarded items, don't leave the market, they can re-enter at any time.  The problem is, we don't know how many of them are bought by people that want the skin, vs people that want to resell the skin.  Most people that buy them plan on reselling them.  The problem is, who do you resell it to?

[squalleonahar]

OP just want us to give him a hand in dominating those skin.
we all know that it's not gonna go up for like at least 6> months. and with all the new skin introducing now and in chrismast thing migh get worst.
even in halloween time, i dont see those skin sold much. you only can expect new player.

so you can either let your 200-600g sitting there for the next 6 months or......investing into gems and get 10-15s out of each 1g.
this event i stock gems right after halloween for 75s =100 and sold when it hit 90s = 100 right when after the update. made 15s out of each 100 gems for 70k gems. dont want to do the math, my brain hurts
waiting for chrismast to make another hit

Edited by squalleonahar, 16 November 2012 - 09:29 PM.

[arogar4]

squalleonahar, on 16 November 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

OP just want us to give him a hand in dominating those skin.
we all know that it's not gonna go up for like at least 6> months. and with all the new skin introducing now and in chrismast thing migh get worst.
even in halloween time, i dont see those skin sold much. you only can expect new player.

so you can either let your 200-600g sitting there for the next 6 months or......investing into gems and get 10-15s out of each 1g.
this event i stock gems right after halloween for 75s =100 and sold when it hit 90s = 100 right when after the update. made 15s out of each 100 gems for 70k gems. dont want to do the math, my brain hurts
waiting for chrismast to make another hit

If you buy gems and after sell them you loss 33%. If you bought for 75s =100 and sold for 90s=100 I think you lost 15s.

And about halloween skins, some people will resell them but not all and every day there will be less skins, and there are many people who want or will want them but don ´t have the gold yet or they still don´t know that skins exist. Moreover some people will want them for more characters and you will always see the old skins when you look for new skins.

Ah and now there are only 80 greatswords, 13 less than my last post. Wait one week and see the price.

Edited by arogar4, 16 November 2012 - 11:09 PM.

[Enchanted Krystal]

Knuckledust13, on 16 November 2012 - 12:40 PM, said:

What makes you think people will even remember these weapons names in a few months? Hell, even in a few weeks? Your estimations are also absurd and have no base lol.

Collectors never forget, ever.

It won't happen overnight, but it will happen.....in 12 months or longer perhaps.  Sure new better skins will come along, but these were the 1st event skins from the 1st ever Halloween event, your kidding yourself if you think they will be forgotten.

I do agree however, that there are much faster/easier ways to make money, but the OP did say "Long term investment"  

Edited by Enchanted Krystal, 16 November 2012 - 11:15 PM.

[JONO51]

Considering you can get stuff like the chain sword for something like 2g and they stack, there's no reason not to pick up a couple. I don't think you'll see them have a decent pay off for 6mo+ though, so I wouldn't bother putting a ton into them. If they aren't present next halloween though, I think their price would really start to go up (for the whole collector angle like Enchanted Krystal said).

[Enchanted Krystal]

From 14 November 2012 - 10:51 PM:

But....But Anet say there will be cooler skin in Lost shore Event BLC, it's might glowing too.
And.....more cooler skin in Chrismast event BLC.
And.....
And.....

...and your so very wrong. Those Xmas & Lost Shores skins were not as popular & supply is a lot more abundant.

From 16 November 2012 - 09:22 PM:

OP just want us to give him a hand in dominating those skin.
we all know that it's not gonna go up for like at least 6> months. and with all the new skin introducing now and in chrismast thing migh get worst.
even in halloween time, i dont see those skin sold much. you only can expect new player......

OP was always telling the truth. Check the current prices on Grinning Shield, Scythe Staff, Chain Sword(not so much) & Greatsaw skin's and you will see just how much more valuable they are already becomming....

Kudos to those who picked up some of these nice skins while they were @20g or less...

Edited by Enchanted Krystal, 20 December 2012 - 07:32 AM.

[silvergrove]

I got my skin the first day.  My guildmates kept telling me to sell the skin ASAP or when speculation was high.  Glad I hanged on to it.  I see a good but small population of players using the skin.

It looks really cool and I'm tempted but I'm glad I'm hanging on to it for long term.  Each use means less of that skin!

[guardianangelmp]

I've tripled my investment already, 60g to over 190g.  I'm glad I picked up some of those skins.  I always look for the things during events that look like they may increase in value over the long run, but there  really wasn't any during the Lost Shores and there is only really one for Wintersday (though I did grab one of ever non-gem store skin just in case).