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#1 Scubazombeh

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 07:28 PM

Note: You may not believe me, but I'm not pumping and dumping, just sharing my insights and hoping others share theirs as well. TLDR below.

So folks,

Since release I have done a pretty good job investing in the right materials. T6 mats, giant eyes, bugged recipes.

I was thinking of other items out there that are underpriced and have the potential to skyrocket

-Piles of Putrid Essence - these are rare quality materials and they are currently selling for near-vendor price. There is no other safer investment out there. Why do I think it's going to shoot up in price? Well, the essence has very little use in game other than to make runes. Arenanet has shown that they are proactive in adding content and new items in the game, so it's a safe bet that we'll see a future use in this. In addition, as we saw early on in the game, Arenanet is willing to make temporary recipes in order to adjust supply. I'd be willing to bet that Piles of Putrid could end up having more value than some T6 mats, or above 10s each, simply due to it being a rare drop. From an investment of only 50c, to a safe price of 2S each, that's a huge amount of profit.

-Large Skull - just like the piles, this crafting mat doesn't have much use, and it's reflected in the price, which is about 1.5s last time I checked. What's special about Large Skull? Well it's in the same category as it's super valuable cousin, Giant Eye. You can expect the Large Skull to be included in future key recipes. And it's drop rate is just as low as the Giant Eye.

-Generic Halloween Skins - halloween skins have been dropping since they were discontinued, which some people are surprised at. I'm not surprised, because many people who invested in the skins are thinking short-term. You need to think long-term for these items. Many sellers want to make a quick buck, but right now they're dumping to recoup losses and gain liquidity. Note that this may be a long-term investment, and by long-term, I mean 6-12 months. A safe bet is that the value of the skins will peak during summer 2013 - you don't want to sell near the Halloween 2013 event since they may come out with the same skins again. However, if you wish to risk it and hold it, you may end up with something very rare.
*Important note - It is safer to invest in skins that are not 'themed'. I would considerate the Mad Moon Shield to be themed. The Greatsaw is not, however.

-Orichalcum - Common investment advice is to buy low, sell high. Well right now, Ori is at an all-time low, so it's an obvious opportunity to buy. But will it sell at a higher price later?

I'm sure it will. It's a t6 craft, so  you can expect it to be used in all lvl 80 items. Arenanet has stated that they will be adding new items, and the chances are good that these items require orichalcum in some way. How about new legendaries? I can't remember if they indicated if there would be new ones, but as it stands now, many of the popular legendaries require a ton of orichalchum. Don't expect much profit out of this one though. I can't see if rising above 4-6S.

-Mystic Coin - Same as above. Price is depressed and the supply is limited at a near-linear rate while demand can one day increase exponentially.

TLDR:
Invest in:
-Piles of Putrid Essence
-Large Skull
-Select Halloween Skins
-Orichalcum/Mystic Coin

#2 AppleShark

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:29 PM

To add to your list, glacial lonestones.
Its currently at ~20s, which is 1/8 of the price of charged ones. Good time to invest for Christmas

#3 madmaxII

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:24 PM

Be careful with Orichalcum. It looks like the new level 80 area has a permanent rich vein at a fixed location!

#4 Vexd

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:59 PM

View PostmadmaxII, on 22 November 2012 - 11:24 PM, said:

Be careful with Orichalcum. It looks like the new level 80 area has a permanent rich vein at a fixed location!

is that still there? went there today and couldn't find it at the top of the nest =S

#5 madmaxII

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Posted 23 November 2012 - 12:28 AM

View PostVexd, on 22 November 2012 - 11:59 PM, said:

is that still there? went there today and couldn't find it at the top of the nest =S

Just checked it, it is still there on my server (ring of fire)

#6 Lasareth

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Posted 23 November 2012 - 01:54 AM

Just to add a bit to what you mentioned I find that investing in higher bulk of lower value items is "safer" as it allows you more wiggle room on break-even and profits. If you buy something at, say, 19 copper when historically it varies between 19-32, then all you need to do is hope for a 5-6 copper rise to not lose a lot on your investment. The higher item value you go (when you're getting into halloween skins) the more of an increase you have to hope for for the same effect.

On the flipside, you do have to buy more of the bulk item to make a decent profit margin, so you do have to take into consideration the viability of selling 1000+ of something.

I'm still learning a lot myself though. This trading post business is tricky.

#7 Duplicated

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Posted 23 November 2012 - 08:21 PM

View PostLasareth, on 23 November 2012 - 01:54 AM, said:

Just to add a bit to what you mentioned I find that investing in higher bulk of lower value items is "safer" as it allows you more wiggle room on break-even and profits. If you buy something at, say, 19 copper when historically it varies between 19-32, then all you need to do is hope for a 5-6 copper rise to not lose a lot on your investment. The higher item value you go (when you're getting into halloween skins) the more of an increase you have to hope for for the same effect.

On the flipside, you do have to buy more of the bulk item to make a decent profit margin, so you do have to take into consideration the viability of selling 1000+ of something.

I'm still learning a lot myself though. This trading post business is tricky.
It's just like the stock market, except that the commission fee (in the form of transaction and listing fee) here is absurdly high.




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