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Inflation: Out of Hand or Alright for Now?


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#1 Gerroh

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 10:59 PM

Well, I noticed something rather odd on the TP today. Earlier this morning unidentified dyes were 10s each, and last time I checked(a few minutes ago) they were 19s each, which is... uh, a bit crazy. 90% increase in less than a day(whether it sticks or not) is pretty insane, most of the time.
I've noticed a lot of common dyes have spiked in price, abyss dye is approaching 18g, ecto are over 33s, etc.
Now, this is not a "QQ, I have no money" thread, because I do have money, and if I weren't so lazy I'd have at least twice what I have. Won't say exact amount, but buying abyss isn't that big of a deal to me, we'll put it that way.
I'm more concerned for my guild members and other average people. Obviously we can't all play the TP, we can't all have luck, etc etc. As the prices keep rising I don't see any sign of it stopping anytime soon; prices aren't really stabilizing on dyes/ectos/etc(of course, they will eventually).
So do you think Anet should step in to adjust drop rates,leave it awhile, and see what happens, or maybe something else?

(No, this is not a place to complain about travel and repair fees, those cause deflation, get out)
(And if I'm missing something huge and just being a total idiot, let me know that, too)

#2 DuskWolf

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:06 PM

If we hypothetically have to accept that economies even matter in vidyagames...

Then no, to the contrary. The gane is currently in a deflationary spiral. Eventually people having less money are going to end up devaluing things on the auction house. The complaints about not enough money going into the auction house are just going to make things cheaper and cheaper, because anyone who tries to put anything up on the AH for a high price just won't be able to sell. Hence all the super cheap dyes.

and if you ask me, the deflationary spiral that GW2 is caught up in is far more dangerous than inflation. See: Bitcoins.

#3 Ualtar

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:08 PM

The big changes in prices is related to Anet shutting down a large number of bots.  They are getting better at keeping bots out of the game, and that means there is less stuff being farmed and put on the TP.  Drop rates and prices for things will be a work in process as they determine the right drop rates in light of the bots removal.

#4 Korra

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:26 PM

I just know that those T6 mats are driving me crazy

#5 fffire24

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:43 PM

View PostUaltar, on 28 November 2012 - 11:08 PM, said:

The big changes in prices is related to Anet shutting down a large number of bots.  They are getting better at keeping bots out of the game, and that means there is less stuff being farmed and put on the TP.  Drop rates and prices for things will be a work in process as they determine the right drop rates in light of the bots removal.

This says it all.  I wouldn't consider it inflation.

#6 MisterSin

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:48 PM

In other news, Ori keeps dropping in prices

#7 RandomErrata

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:02 AM

I would say inflation is on the rise:

1) The dye prices are going up as mentioned to pretty high levels (some of this due to bots)
2) The amount of gold required to buy gems has drastically increased (ofc ANet hides the purchase/sales mechanism so maybe manipulated by them).
3) My anecdotal evidence from WvW where people are throwing around siege like crazy. Used to be they were somewhat rare, but now 8-12 golem rushes are becoming more frequent as are dropping  multiple rams and catapults. I suspect there would be more if supply wasn't a limiting factor.

#8 Drekor

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:07 AM

Price on dusk goes up faster than I can even make gold, it amuses me.

Edited by Drekor, 29 November 2012 - 12:08 AM.


#9 Sponx

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:42 AM

Well.. there are also some few very rich individuals that pretty much own the TP at the moment. A friend of mine is one of those, and he has up to 10k gold right now.. (yes, I know..) People like him are reason why the Abyssal Dye doubled in price during a day, someone bought them all up, and put them out for double the price. When you have that much money to use on items that are rare, you can basically control the market however you feel like it when it comes to those kind of items.

#10 Steadfast Gao Shun

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:54 AM

Eh. Mirroring real-life economic situations, there will always be the 1%. But seriously. What are we going to do? Occupy Lion's Arch? ;)

(Personally, I think it's kinda pointless to worry about it - it's not something one individual or one group of individuals could really address, and the "market" at the moment is volatile enough to render most predictions reasonably meaningless.)

Edited by Steadfast Gao Shun, 29 November 2012 - 12:58 AM.


#11 fatrodmc

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:18 AM

View PostSteadfast Gao Shun, on 29 November 2012 - 12:54 AM, said:

What are we going to do? Occupy Lion's Arch? ;)

Haha why not. Let the wealthy know that us poor people don't like them.

#12 Gerroh

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:28 AM

View PostDuskWolf, on 28 November 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

If we hypothetically have to accept that economies even matter in vidyagames...

Then no, to the contrary. The gane is currently in a deflationary spiral. Eventually people having less money are going to end up devaluing things on the auction house. The complaints about not enough money going into the auction house are just going to make things cheaper and cheaper, because anyone who tries to put anything up on the AH for a high price just won't be able to sell. Hence all the super cheap dyes.

and if you ask me, the deflationary spiral that GW2 is caught up in is far more dangerous than inflation. See: Bitcoins.

There's.. deflation?
Have you been away from the game for a few weeks?

View PostSponx, on 29 November 2012 - 12:42 AM, said:

People like him are reason why the Abyssal Dye doubled in price during a day, someone bought them all up, and put them out for double the price. When you have that much money to use on items that are rare, you can basically control the market however you feel like it when it comes to those kind of items.

Stuff like that bothers me. Even if I had that much money I wouldn't do that kind of thing, feels too dirty.

Edited by Gerroh, 29 November 2012 - 01:30 AM.


#13 Briar

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:30 AM

View PostRandomErrata, on 29 November 2012 - 12:02 AM, said:

3) My anecdotal evidence from WvW where people are throwing around siege like crazy. Used to be they were somewhat rare, but now 8-12 golem rushes are becoming more frequent as are dropping  multiple rams and catapults. I suspect there would be more if supply wasn't a limiting factor.

Objection,

The siege overdose is from people who were farming tokens from the jumping puzzle

I consolidated my siege just today and from a few weeks of farming with multiple alts I have around 50 arrow cart, Balista and Cata 18 Treb and 9 Siege golems

If there are many people like me then that is why you are seeiing a rise in siege use

...

I mean really I was using siege rams to decorate the chandeliers in the EB jumping puzzle today; if that puts things into perspective

#14 Scorpion

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:35 AM

Abyss dye went from like 13g to 15g in hours, the closer I get to getting it the higher the price goes...

#15 LavaSquid

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:53 AM

Ascended content...I think that explains everything for ectos, T6 mats.

and Anet should really make unlocked dyes to be account wide already...should be able to bring the price down again.

Edited by LavaSquid, 29 November 2012 - 02:56 AM.


#16 Redhawk2007

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:00 AM

The problem is they nerfed dye drops into the ground and now the prices are outrageous. They are clearly trying to force people into the cash shop on this one.

#17 Kid

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:36 AM

View PostSponx, on 29 November 2012 - 12:42 AM, said:

Well.. there are also some few very rich individuals that pretty much own the TP at the moment. A friend of mine is one of those, and he has up to 10k gold right now.. (yes, I know..) People like him are reason why the Abyssal Dye doubled in price during a day, someone bought them all up, and put them out for double the price. When you have that much money to use on items that are rare, you can basically control the market however you feel like it when it comes to those kind of items.

And I wonder why many people in game genuinely believe the trading post is not manipulated in some ways. The gullibility of people these days.

#18 Krazzar

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:38 AM

View PostDuskWolf, on 28 November 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

If we hypothetically have to accept that economies even matter in vidyagames...

Then no, to the contrary. The gane is currently in a deflationary spiral. Eventually people having less money are going to end up devaluing things on the auction house. The complaints about not enough money going into the auction house are just going to make things cheaper and cheaper, because anyone who tries to put anything up on the AH for a high price just won't be able to sell. Hence all the super cheap dyes.

and if you ask me, the deflationary spiral that GW2 is caught up in is far more dangerous than inflation. See: Bitcoins.

The deflation is a natural result of limited or no controls. In most real economies there are far more costs that remove money from individuals, and economies that don't have the same situation (and are usually dissolved relatively quickly). "Valuable" items have a high cost in-game because they are scarce, but as more are generated scarcity fades and the price drops. In the real world scarcity is not dissipated within days, even when there isn't real scarcity. If money and items couldn't be infinitely generated or far more money were removed from players regularly there wouldn't be the same deflation effect on common items and the quick dissipation of scarcity.

Reduction of purchasing power.
Increase in opportunity cost of holding money.
Continued growth of the money supply.

All those are hallmarks of inflation.

#19 Baron von Scrufflebutt

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:54 AM

Give us a 1g max gear merchant. Vanity items getting out of control is secondary, they can figure this out later - or not at all. They are vanity items - we went into the game knowing we'd have to grind for them.
But max gear, on the other hand, is something that simply can never be left to the market.

#20 Korlic

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 05:15 AM

I think the 'bot ban' excuse is getting a little old. Its been weeks since that happened and the prices continue to be on the rise.

#21 Cobalt60

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 05:44 AM

It is supply and demand.

Put simply on the 6th of November, there were 200000 UnID dye listings, and 130000 buy orders. The price was 2-3 S per dye.

On the 29th of November there are 6000 UnID dye listings and 160000 buy orders. The price is 12-13 S per dye.

#22 Jason Seven

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 06:05 AM

View PostMisterSin, on 28 November 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

In other news, Ori keeps dropping in prices
Bots used to farm crafting materials non-stop. Now that so many have been banned they've shifted from only farming mobs to node gathering. Mainly Orichalcum. This is much less noticable if they simply order their bots to walk a set route just like normal players do. If you see a player character rubberbanding while running away from a node, it's most likely a bot. There's also a tool that allows instant teleportation on any map. Mining the Rich Orichalcum Vein in Southsun Cove is no problem if one uses this. It even teleports you high above the node so that you don't aggro the champion Karka. Of course it's usually only used on low population servers during downtime.

#23 Plasticblanket

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 06:12 AM

Less people and less people are playing so of course the price of dye for example will go up.

#24 Lilitu Livid

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 06:30 AM

^^^ Prior to the patch in early November, which had unIDed dyes falling out of every single herb node ( i had 15 drop in an hour and a half of play), the going rate (dependent on day to day fluctuations) was about 6 silverish (IIRC).

The price plummeted, because the market got flooded. Then it was patched again, to get rid of the unintentionally high drop rate... It took a while to get rid of that "bubble" of unID dye, and then prices started to rise again.

Whether more people are now going for their "Gift of Colour", because of the precursor drop fest during Lost Shores, or whether people stated to gamble on buying unID and opening them in the hope of getting something more lucrative to sell onwards, or whether people are cornering various markets (I suspect it's all 3)... IDK: But I don't think we can conclude that "the game is dying ;)

Of course, those with tinfoil hats will mention the gem-store aspect

Edited by Lilitu Livid, 29 November 2012 - 06:31 AM.


#25 Waar Kijk Je Naar

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:25 AM

View PostJason Seven, on 29 November 2012 - 06:05 AM, said:

Bots used to farm crafting materials non-stop. Now that so many have been banned they've shifted from only farming mobs to node gathering. Mainly Orichalcum. This is much less noticable if they simply order their bots to walk a set route just like normal players do. If you see a player character rubberbanding while running away from a node, it's most likely a bot. There's also a tool that allows instant teleportation on any map. Mining the Rich Orichalcum Vein in Southsun Cove is no problem if one uses this. It even teleports you high above the node so that you don't aggro the champion Karka. Of course it's usually only used on low population servers during downtime.
I don't think it's bots. Almost everyone has all of their characters (except their "main") parked at the Rich Ori Vein. Easy 60 Ori in 1 minute, once per day. You can stand on the wooden beam and the Karka will not attack, so a teleport tool/hack isn't even needed.

Then again, it's rather obvious Anet is manipulating the market. Dyes and high-end mats prices skyrocket. Anet sells dyes and tools that improve chances for high level mats(magic find boost, BL Salvage kit) in the gem store. Coincidence? I think not.

WTS Tinfoil Hats 200g each.

#26 LIVESTRONGG

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:46 AM

View PostMisterSin, on 28 November 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

In other news, Ori keeps dropping in prices
Well obviously, everyone farms it, there's a set time when it respawns, websites telling you where to farm it, used for dailies. So yeah it's gonna go down.

To the topic; The one thing that really fuked up the market is bots, t6 mats there were usually farmed to death aren't being farmed because most have terrible drop rates, then to ectos being keys for ascended items, so those go up 100% in less than a month. There is not real way to farm gold other than farming, and guild wars is built around no farming, so we're in a quandary. Farming mats/rares(ectos) will make you money, a good amount of it, but then the more those get farmed, the less valuable they become. Then what else is there to farm and make money? Crafting isn't money making. So what else is there?

I honestly think that the lack of true farming items from reliable ways, (GW 1 example: ids, totem axes, every green weapon, and all dungeon chests dropping dungeon specific high end weapons (bds). Sure you can farm specific mats based on the mob, but there isn't really any kind of satisfaction there.

I really don't know what should be done, all I know is things that could be done, and not necessarily fix things.

Edited by LIVESTRONGG, 29 November 2012 - 08:46 AM.


#27 azanti987

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:48 AM

It's ok you can buy gold in the cash shop.

hmm could it be this is what Anet wants to happen?....

I've seen devs mess with prices to drive them up before like this, buy all stock and resell higher.  It's not hard if you want to push cash shop sales on gems.

Problem = people are making enough gold to get by and stop buying gems.

Soloution = increase prices on everything out of their gold making abilities.

Edited by azanti987, 29 November 2012 - 08:50 AM.


#28 NumNumPie

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:41 AM

View PostProtoss, on 29 November 2012 - 04:54 AM, said:

Give us a 1g max gear merchant. Vanity items getting out of control is secondary, they can figure this out later - or not at all. They are vanity items - we went into the game knowing we'd have to grind for them.
But max gear, on the other hand, is something that simply can never be left to the market.

Order armor is around 8-9g total isn't it? Not sure if it's max though. I do know t2 cultural is around 7g, but that one is rare.

#29 Lucas Ashrock

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:47 AM

For people puzzled about curious mat's price behaviour, from the simpler to precursors, i'll give you a hint: i met right yesterday a guy with 1500g, making 100g per day. A real idiot, realized easily talking with him a bit, maybe a teenager. Now, if our market is in the hand of this kind of players, you can easily understand the future of this game, and TP behaviour, not being surprised anymore of "anomalies". Was just one of those billionaire players bored, messing a bit the TP , as this player said  talking about it as fun . He showed me real time going to TP then pinging what he bough, buying loads of mats he doesn't even need, growing that mat minimal price of 20s more, resold all of them 1 copper less of the now ruined price :P

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 29 November 2012 - 09:51 AM.


#30 NumNumPie

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:51 AM

I don't see why it's so surprising to see people controlling the economy, it gets done IRL, it's gonna happen in the game. It's simple, buy out all of a single item, then put it back on the market for twice the price. There's no set price for them, so people just buy it at that price.




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