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Question about Mystic Clovers


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#1 ReDeViL1111

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:07 PM

Hi guys, i have to do 77x mystic clovers for my legendary, i read that there are 2 recipes for clovers:

1 clover recipe: 1 shard + 1 mystic coin + 1 glob of ecto + 6 philo stone
33% 1 clover
67% 1-5 t6 mat

10 clovers recipe: 10 shard + 10 mystic coin + 10 glob of ecto + 10 crystal
10 clover or
10-50 t5-6 mat

Now the question is, which recipe do you think is more convenient? Considering that i have to collect also 250x of each t6 mat for the other gift.

#2 Vysander

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:29 PM

I would highly recommend the 1-1-1-6 recipe.

Just from personal experience, i crafted my 77 clovers in about 210 tries using the 1-1-1-6 method. equaling 210 globs. A guildie of mine, though it could be argued he just had very bad luck, ended up needing about 550 globs after attempting 20 crafts of the 10-10-10-10 recipe and only receiving 10 clovers (one successful craft).

Basically the 1-1-1-6 method is more consistent. The chances of getting a terrible craft rate are lower because you have to do more crafts, giving yourself a better chance at hitting the 33% average.
However, you can end up using less doing the 10-10-10-10 method, but are much more susceptible to having a string of very bad luck and needing more crafts to hit a 33% average (suspected rate of 10-10-10-10 crafting).

Hope this helps, and if someone feels to take the time to explain, it is statistically backed that 1-1-1-6 is better as well. I know someone posted it on the GW2 official forums.... but im not at home and dont feel like finding it again.

Edited by Vysander, 05 December 2012 - 04:30 PM.


#3 artemist

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:54 PM

From 10MC recipe I got 50 Clovers, lots of T6 mats (worth as much as 50% used ecto) and  10 Destro Lodestones (nice bonus) It's all  from 110ecto. Imo it's better option for me and my guildmates... or we re just lucky.

#4 Vysander

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:37 PM

View Postartemist, on 05 December 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

From 10MC recipe I got 50 Clovers, lots of T6 mats (worth as much as 50% used ecto) and  10 Destro Lodestones (nice bonus) It's all  from 110ecto. Imo it's better option for me and my guildmates... or we re just lucky.

Hard to say, no not really, thats lucky as hell. The guildmate that tried 20+ of the 10-10-10-10 got alot of elder planks, ancient bones, etc. He did get some of the better mats and lodestones, but was a major loss in his case.

Statistically speaking you will get an equivalent amount of T6 mats/lodestones/hiden stashes from either method.

Could always try some of each, get the feel for them. I just prefer the 1-1-1-6 method because it is statistically more reliable (and from the people i know that have tried, more reliable).

Edited by Vysander, 05 December 2012 - 09:38 PM.


#5 diadox

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:42 PM

Like Vysander said: the 1 recipe is more consistent. The reason for this is normal probability; more total samples are going to yield a result closer to the average (33%, again what Vysander said). The 10 recipe is more of a wild card in that RNG is more likely to either bless you or screw you over (the 1 recipe is also subject to RNG of course but, again, you're going to have more samples). Use the 1 recipe if you want to play it safe, and the 10 recipe if you want to gamble.

#6 darksuzaku

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 06:01 PM

Both have the same probability but the 10 recipe has a much higher variance. It's like betting 10 times $1 or 10$ just once. The first gives you more chances to win at least something. With the second you can hit the jackpot if you win the first time but can get screwed big time if you fail. On the long run however, you would win tthe same amount with either choice.




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