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Potentially discontinued rare items?


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#1 Scruffy

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 03:18 PM

As you all may or may not know, Mystic Chests have been out of circulation for over two months now and the effect of this is astounding. Mystic Forge Conduits have reached the price of dozens of gold, and even Mystic Forge Nodes themselves fetch a price of over a gold.

However, what has really caught my attention are the markets of Mystic Chests and the components found inside these respective consumables. As of the time of this posting, Mystic Chests have listed sell postings of 20g and buy orders of up to 11g. A steadily slow supply of Mystic Frames command an astonishing price of 30g and buy orders up to 21g.

My two cents regarding these disproportional prices is this: Players who open a Mystic Chest permanently take one out of the game, and have a relatively small chance to be rewarded a nexus or a frame. Once a player gets a frame or nexus, there is no point keeping just one piece and they proceed to purchase the rest of the components in order to create a Mystic Forge Conduit.

Comparing the supply and demand of Mystic Frames, Mystic Nexuses, and Mystic Chests to Mystic Forge Conduits, this leads me to wonder whether or not if the "building blocks" of the Conduit are rarer than the actual product itself. If so, what may the effects of this be on the market? Can Mystic Frames, Nexuses, or Mystic Chests eventually surpass the price of the Conduits themselves? Can these be the new Christmas Crackers of GW2? And ultimately, are they worth investing in?

#2 BrettM

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 04:05 PM

The prices for all of these items are bound to go up over time as long as demand exists for them and ANet doesn't pull the rug out from under by putting new chests into circulation. How can an investment be any more certain than one in discontinued items that people still want?

If the price of the components ends up exceeding the price of the conduit, then sales of components will stall until the current supply of conduits on the market is exhausted. At which point conduits will start to appear at a higher price point, reflecting the higher cost of the components that went into them. (Of course, this assumes a market in which the players are capable of doing simple arithmetic. That may be a poor assumption for the GW2 economy. :))

In a real economy, I think the actual response of the market to a rise in component prices would be for the current conduits to be withdrawn and re-offered at a higher price to reflect the cost of replacing them. You can see this happen with, for example, a rise in the price of petroleum. Existing stocks of refined petroleum products are re-priced because the owner will need additional capital to replace them. (At which point idiots start a fuss about "price gouging".) But that may be a little too real-world for the GW2 economy.

Edited by BrettM, 13 December 2012 - 04:10 PM.


#3 JONO51

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 06:33 PM

The way I see it, the chest will become the most valuable over time (year+) since it has the potential for components, and once the components/conduit drop to very low availability, that potential itself (combined with the novelty value/collector aspect) will push its price.




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