40 replies to this topic

[Calypso589]

Over on the official forums, the mystic forge is affectionately known as the mystic toilet. And why shouldn't it be? Especially when you have players throwing 350g worth of weapons in at a time and getting nothing.


Despite all that I decided a couple weeks ago that I would attempt to make my precursor (The Chosen) that way.

I went about doing so following a couple self-imposed procedures and rules.

1. Only use cheap level 70 exotic weapons.

• In my case these were shields ranging between 80 and 99s so 4 typically cost about 3 1/2 gold.
  
• I find that so many people spend hundreds of gold on rares in the belief that because they are cheaper, they can buy more of them and because they've bought in bulk they're bound to get their precursor right? Well no, not always. While it's RNG no matter what rarity you're using, you take the bigger risk using rares because it's not just a precursor you're gambling for; It's an exotic in and of itself. An exotic return will at least (for the most part) make you back about half of what you spent while a rare might only be worth well....a rare. So basically you have two whole loot tables that the game can pick from. It's best to use exotics as this greatly narrows the list of possible outcomes and provides the best chance at the outcome being the one you want. But exotics are so expensive right? Well......

2. Only make attempts when you can afford to.

• I never allowed myself to go below 100g except when it was necessary for the sake of those last few silver to make a purchase. Obviously not everyone has 100g but it works with any number. Start with 10, never letting yourself go below 4 or 5. Start with 20 and never let yourself go below 10. The idea here is that if you fail, you can make money off your returns and then use that to build upon your existing funds so you can try again another day. Basically when you lose, you don't lose too much and you'll never risk running out of money for other things. Like basic travel. lol

3. Don't get Greedy

• This pretty much falls in line with #2. The fact of the matter is that each try in the mystic forge is independent of the other. If you were only able to afford three tries but you have enough to try a fourth time (using that last bit of gold you said you wouldn't spend) you do it and you fail. Now you have nothing. This is why you limit yourself because in all honesty the game rewards the lucky and punishes the greedy but is a pretty nice chap to the smart.

4. Be Patient

• This really should be in the #1 slot but I have it last because it's the one thing I want people to really remember. This has the potential to be a slow process, taking several days or weeks depending both on your luck but mostly on the rate at which you acquire gold (or dungeon exotics that you can also throw in the forge). The average player will take a very long time to build a legendary. Depending on your luck, this method of acquiring your precursor could be very costly if you add up all your failed attempts. Each failure however is a blow lessened by the funds you should be saving and the money earned from your returns. It's a psychological thing designed to make you go "well shucks. But I still have 5 gold. Guess I'll try again when I have 9 or 10."
  
• It's also true here that if you're making the money back for one purpose (this being the purpose), then you haven't really lost anything at all. It's just "regenerating" in a sense.
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• My ultimate recommendation is that if you're on the poorer side of the population, that you make attempts at forging your precursor when it is the last thing on your list. Much money is needed elsewhere in the process of making a legendary and you'll feel like you've hit a wall in the endeavor if you feel like you have to save everything for the mystic forge and it's just not happening at that time. You'll find you'll have better patience with it when you remember that

  

A.You have everything else you need

B.Your precursor isn't going anywhere

• If you're striving for a legendary then I think it's best to assume that you enjoy the game. This means you can keep enjoying the game for as long as it takes you to finally forge your precursor and you'll be happy knowing that when you got it, you didn't blow 600+ gold on it.

That's about it really. I'm pleased to report that utilizing these tips has rewarded me with not one but 2 precursors within the span of about a month. The second was made to help fund the other materials I need because I just hate farming. I'm currently working on my third to help fund the rest at which point all that will be left is the Gift of Fortune and the Gift of Mastery which can both be obtained without actually going out of your way to change the way you play.

I realize that I was very lucky in making 2 so quick. It's possible that the third won't be so quickly obtained but i'm trying all the same.

Hopefully you guys strike gold (so to speak). Just remember the mystic forge is like a beautiful woman.

Be patient with her.
Be cautious with your wallet around her.
Give her gifts consistently so she's kept happy.

Eventually, she'll put out.

Cheers

[Clarzk]

did 70 exo works for prec? isnt 75++?

[Verene]

I'm just saving money to get my precursor.

One of my friends uses the T5 mats she gets while farming in Orr to craft rare level 80 weapons and puts those in. No money spent on it, and any rares that spit back out become mystic toilet fodder again, while exotics go on the trade post. I'm tempted to turn to that method instead of selling my T5 mats because of the money you can get from the exotics you get out of there. Still, neither of us expect to see a precursor spit out of the forge.

Edited by Verene, 26 January 2013 - 07:23 AM.

[Calypso589]

Clarzk, on 26 January 2013 - 07:07 AM, said:

did 70 exo works for prec? isnt 75++?

that's another misconception i see here and there. Even in my own guild lol

70 is the lowest level you can go when using exotics.
75 is the lowest you can go when using rares if you wish for the chance to get an exotic back.

Verene, on 26 January 2013 - 07:21 AM, said:

I'm just saving money to get my precursor.

One of my friends uses the T5 mats she gets while farming in Orr to craft rare level 80 weapons and puts those in. No money spent on it, and any rares that spit back out become mystic toilet fodder again, while exotics go on the trade post. I'm tempted to turn to that method instead of selling my T5 mats because of the money you can get from the exotics you get out of there. Still, neither of us expect to see a precursor spit out of the forge.

yeah, there's people in my guild who do that as well. Perfectly viable. I feel it's for the ultra patient though since I feel you acquire gold quicker than T5 materials. That and you don't have farm a specific place but to each their own.

It does happen. Just know it's not as likely when using rares since you're gambling within more than one kind of rarity loot table but like i said, you guys sound like you're very patient and that's exactly what it takes above all else.

Edited by Calypso589, 26 January 2013 - 07:30 AM.

[Verene]

Oh, we spend a lot of time in Cursed Shore. I usually wind up with about 15 large bones and a half dozen venom sacs after an event or two, as well as a handful of T6 mats. Not to mention all of the potent blood I get in fractals. I sell off my T5 and below mats every day and usually average a gold a day on those alone - on top of what I brought in from regular drops and dungeons.

We're both taking our legendaries as long-term projects though, and we're working together (sharing back and forth mats that we both don't need). If the mystic toilet decides to give either of us our precursor - hey, awesome! If not, we're still hoarding our cash and watching the TP like a hawk for current prices on our precursors.

[Calypso589]

Verene, on 26 January 2013 - 07:37 AM, said:

Oh, we spend a lot of time in Cursed Shore. I usually wind up with about 15 large bones and a half dozen venom sacs after an event or two, as well as a handful of T6 mats. Not to mention all of the potent blood I get in fractals. I sell off my T5 and below mats every day and usually average a gold a day on those alone - on top of what I brought in from regular drops and dungeons.

We're both taking our legendaries as long-term projects though, and we're working together (sharing back and forth mats that we both don't need). If the mystic toilet decides to give either of us our precursor - hey, awesome! If not, we're still hoarding our cash and watching the TP like a hawk for current prices on our precursors.

Well I didn't mention this in the OP for the sake of length (and because it didn't have much to do with precursors anyway), but concerning the rewards that will be available in the coming achievement Laurels system, Colin specifically referenced items that are currently "buried beneath RNG." Now while I doubt this means precursors, since they're putting heavy emphasis on the early work they're doing on the scavenger hunt, my first thought was LODESTONES. My hopes are high because for most people these little nuggets of hair-pulling are the hardest to acquire and present the biggest obstacle to overcome.

Here's the interview he did with MMORPG where he uses those words (about 18 minutes in is where they start talking GW2)

:

He also drops some nice tidbits about Orr at the end you and your friend might enjoy hearing.

Edited by Calypso589, 26 January 2013 - 07:55 AM.

[Verene]

Oh yeah we know all about all that stuff already

(also, she's doing Dreamer and I'm doing Kudzu. Our lodestone equivalent is orbs for her and omnomberries for me. We make our friend who is doing Bolt flail daily at that fact!)

Edited by Verene, 26 January 2013 - 03:21 PM.

[Crossbow1701]

You could also do Dungeon runs and get tokens and trade those in for the dungeon weps.  Been doing that to see if I can get my per-curser.

[Calypso589]

Crossbow1701, on 26 January 2013 - 03:29 PM, said:

You could also do Dungeon runs and get tokens and trade those in for the dungeon weps.  Been doing that to see if I can get my per-curser.

Oh yeah totally. My theory is that if everyone tried every so often, only when they could afford to and was patient with it, we'd probably see a crap ton more precursors on the market and they wouldn't be so expensive.

Everyone sees how poorly people do with the forge and I think it gets its bad rap from people who buy bulk rares and whine when they fail.

I have another theory, which I can't really prove, but I bought about 40g worth of exos and threw them in and it gave me nothing and I think back to either time I got The Chosen.

It was a random day where I tried it and I got it. probably in less than 5 tries on that day. lol

Somehow, I think the game knows when a player is throwing a million weapons at a time in and responds accordingly.....with nothing.

What do you see more of? The player who throws 28 greatswords in and gets his precursor? Or the player who's not even really trying and gets it on the first try?

I dunno. It's all RNG and I can't prove it but just food for thought.

So basically to everyone out there, if you have a million rares or a bunch of exotics of the same weapon type and you want to try and make your precursor, spread em out over a couple days. Don't do em all at once.

But I could be just talking out of my butt. haha

[jthamind]

correct me if i'm wrong, but if you put four level 70 exotics into the forge, you have a chance of getting an exotic anywhere between level 70 and 80, right? if so, how is that any better than four level 80 rares having a 100% chance of giving a level 80 rare or exotic?

[Calypso589]

jthamind, on 26 January 2013 - 08:39 PM, said:

correct me if i'm wrong, but if you put four level 70 exotics into the forge, you have a chance of getting an exotic anywhere between level 70 and 80, right? if so, how is that any better than four level 80 rares having a 100% chance of giving a level 80 rare or exotic?

well you kinda answered yourself there lol

When you use rares you have the chance of getting either a rare OR and exotic. That's two different loot tables the game can choose from. Whereas instead, you only use exotics and therefore only will get exotics back. Since obviously the precursor is an exotic, you would prefer those odds. Now of course using level 80 rares will get you level 80's back, but I personally would prefer using cheap exotics since (and I can't ultimately confirm since I never paid attention to the levels I was receiving back) I think for the most part I was getting 80s back anyway. A fair bit of the time I'd get a named exotic back. I'd say in the 60 times I've done this I got named ones 10 times? Things like Jora's Defender or Guardian of the Six or that terrible terrible shield model with two red spikes on the top (can't remember the name). lol

You can use rares of course, my methods support that. I personally only used exotics just because I didn't want to have to worry at all about getting a useless rare back whereas an exotic stands the chance of making me back a fair bit of money.

Some of those Shaman's etched shields, depending on the type, could be worth 17g.

[Calypso589]

I see where you're comin from though. If you're guaranteed an 80 back, that means if it's an exotic it'll be level 80 and thus the options from which the game can choose out of those exotics are fewer.

Admittedly I'll mix it up myself, going forward. I just feel like your chances are better no matter what if you cut out the possibility of getting a rare back at all. But to each their own .

[jthamind]

i don't think that answers my question, because again, in your case you're getting an exotic back in the RANGE of 70-80. if you were getting a level 80 exotic back putting level 70s in, then sure, your method wins by a landslide. but since you have a 10 level gap that your exotics could fall in, i'm just wondering if that chance is much different than getting something back between two tiers and ONLY level 80. not to mention, your method is roughly twice as expensive per attempt.

i'm not even saying you're wrong, i'm just saying i'd want more concrete evidence. lol. for example, if there are a total of 100 exotic staves between 70-80 and 400 rare and exotic staves combined at level 80, then yeah, your method would be better. but i'd need proof of that, especially since, like i said, yours is more expensive to do. lol.

Calypso589, on 26 January 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

I see where you're comin from though. If you're guaranteed an 80 back, that means if it's an exotic it'll be level 80 and thus the options from which the game can choose out of those exotics are fewer.

yeah, that's all i'm saying. but again, your method could be better if there are fewer exotic choices between 70-80 than there are rare/exotic at 80. i just honestly don't know if there are. lol.

also, i used staves in the example because i'm still hunting for The Legend. >

Edited by jthamind, 26 January 2013 - 08:56 PM.

[Cevilo]

Calypso589, on 26 January 2013 - 07:53 PM, said:

I have another theory, which I can't really prove, but I bought about 40g worth of exos and threw them in and it gave me nothing and I think back to either time I got The Chosen.

It was a random day where I tried it and I got it. probably in less than 5 tries on that day. lol

Somehow, I think the game knows when a player is throwing a million weapons at a time in and responds accordingly.....with nothing.

What do you see more of? The player who throws 28 greatswords in and gets his precursor? Or the player who's not even really trying and gets it on the first try?

I dunno. It's all RNG and I can't prove it but just food for thought.

So basically to everyone out there, if you have a million rares or a bunch of exotics of the same weapon type and you want to try and make your precursor, spread em out over a couple days. Don't do em all at once.

But I could be just talking out of my butt. haha

this made me laugh because I felt the same way back when I played diablo 2.I'd be hunting for an item and it always popped up when I was least expecting it, that random day I was like "ok 1 run before work" the truth is, RNG is RNG. People have this unrealistic expectation when they see these math numbers. like "omg I have 2% chance of a drop, that means if I run this 100 times I should have 2 by the end of it" and that may be true, but it puts this idea in there here that they are promised x weapon by the end of those 100 runs and are disappointed when they don't get it. the truth of the situation is, it's all ways going to be X% (in the example 2) for every run. and just because you found an item before doesn't mean it wont drop again. In the Case of Guild wars 2, you can narrow down your odds in MF, using the same item, using lvl 80s and using exotics increase your odds, but every roll you still have the same chance of getting that item no matter how many times you've rolled. I'm not saying this is your case, you seem to be very realistic about your drop chances and how you're going about getting your items and mats. but the vast majority complaining have this sense of entitlement around them, that just because they had a 1 in a million chance at getting their item and they ran the MF 1 million times, that they should get get the item they are searching for. This isn't the case. it's luck, some people get it some people throw their money away, adding to your earlier point, a big part of it is people using the rares instead of exotics, dramatically decreasing their chances of their desired item.

[Alex Dimitri]

Cevilo, on 26 January 2013 - 09:12 PM, said:

This isn't the case. it's luck, some people get it some people throw their money away, adding to your earlier point, a big part of it is people using the rares instead of exotics, dramatically decreasing their chances of their desired item.

And you just found formula why so many people think that this systems sucks and is overall BAD !
Makin` Legendary weapon should be some kind of Epic achievement, sadly for us it`s not.
It`s dumb Luck (with cash) or just cash....go figure and people don`t like it !

[Calypso589]

Alex Dimitri, on 26 January 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

And you just found formula why so many people think that this systems sucks and is overall BAD !
Makin` Legendary weapon should be some kind of Epic achievement, sadly for us it`s not.
It`s dumb Luck (with cash) or just cash....go figure and people don`t like it !

Well it's proven that rares and exotics work. It's just a matter of patience and not being a derp with your money. lol Although I also feel that the acquisition of a precursor should be rightfully epic and that's why i'm hoping this scavenger hunt that they're working on will make it so.

In the meantime however, for the average player who doesn't have alot of gold but does have alot of patience, this is by far the best method.

[matsif]

Alex Dimitri, on 26 January 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

And you just found formula why so many people think that this systems sucks and is overall BAD !
Makin` Legendary weapon should be some kind of Epic achievement, sadly for us it`s not.
It`s dumb Luck (with cash) or just cash....go figure and people don`t like it !

essentially this.  RNG is a lazy game mechanic to force people to overall spend more in game currency or time on an item.  In this case, it is a prestige item with the name "legendary," and to many players (myself included), that means that it should have some sort of legendary achievement/attachment to it other than being a unique skin and costing tons of gold.  As it stands, all the legendary weapons are as a group is a series of skins that cost drastically more than anything else in the game, without any of the sense of achievement wanted by many other than "thank god RNG liked me today" or "wow I finally saved up enough gold."

I've basically been doing everything people have said in this thread since about a month after release and have yet to see a precursor come out of flushing away money.  I never do more than 20 weapons on buy orders (never spend more than 10g per attempt of 20 items) to conserve funds, and I have nothing to show for it.

Edited by matsif, 26 January 2013 - 10:22 PM.

[Calypso589]

matsif, on 26 January 2013 - 10:21 PM, said:

essentially this.  RNG is a lazy game mechanic to force people to overall spend more in game currency or time on an item.  In this case, it is a prestige item with the name "legendary," and to many players (myself included), that means that it should have some sort of legendary achievement/attachment to it other than being a unique skin and costing tons of gold.  As it stands, all the legendary weapons are as a group is a series of skins that cost drastically more than anything else in the game, without any of the sense of achievement wanted by many other than "thank god RNG liked me today" or "wow I finally saved up enough gold."

I've basically been doing everything people have said in this thread since about a month after release and have yet to see a precursor come out of flushing away money.  I never do more than 20 weapons on buy orders (never spend more than 10g per attempt of 20 items) to conserve funds, and I have nothing to show for it.

Only recommendation for you is to keep trying. RNG is, unfortunately RNG. Or you could wait till the scavenger hunt rolls out but keep in mind that we won't hear anything more about that until at least April. Even then we might only be told that the system Lindsey is developing is in play and now they're building around it. Patience is still the key. No matter what.

The good news is that existing elements of gameplay are getting the tweaks we all so desperately want which will help ease the passing of time while we wait for legendary items to earn their namesake.

[baels]

Crossbow1701, on 26 January 2013 - 03:29 PM, said:

You could also do Dungeon runs and get tokens and trade those in for the dungeon weps.  Been doing that to see if I can get my per-curser.

Just do CoF and buy 30 token level 75 rares, break them down into ecto, sell the ecto and buy exotics to put in. You'll probably be putting exotics into the forge at a faster rate than just buying exotic dungeon weapons. Ecto salvage rate is pretty high if you use a master salvage it. Usually always at least 1:1 for me. Minimum cost for an exotic weapon is around 210 or so? 390 for 2h. 390 = 13 rares = ~11-15 ecto unless you're really unlucky. That's at current prices of ecto 4-5g+. You can buy 2-3 exotic weapons (depending what you're going for) with the ecto money.

You also have the added bonus of a chance of orichalcum from the rare salvages if you buy the heavy gloves.

Edited by baels, 27 January 2013 - 02:41 AM.

[Verene]

baels, on 27 January 2013 - 02:40 AM, said:

Just do CoF and buy 30 token level 75 rares, break them down into ecto, sell the ecto and buy exotics to put in. You'll probably be putting exotics into the forge at a faster rate than just buying exotic dungeon weapons. Ecto salvage rate is pretty high if you use a master salvage it. Usually always at least 1:1 for me. Minimum cost for an exotic weapon is around 210 or so? 390 for 2h. 390 = 13 rares = ~11-15 ecto unless you're really unlucky. That's at current prices of ecto 4-5g+. You can buy 2-3 exotic weapons (depending what you're going for) with the ecto money.

You also have the added bonus of a chance of orichalcum from the rare salvages if you buy the heavy gloves.

Though, realistically, if someone's looking for a precursor then they're going to need all of the ecto they can get their hands on, because making a legendary takes close to two stacks of ecto (and that's if you have average luck with getting clovers).

Still, trading tokens for rares to salvage into ecto is good advice either way, because it's either quick ecto or quick cash, no matter which route you decide to go.

[Lucas Ashrock]

Interesting teory, and well, i agree about it and how it would work. Effective, and doable. So sad it remembers me a post written with exact words (Except he was talking about red and black) about roulette and how to make money on a casino not being broken. Gambling, just sad and disgusting..
Luckly i found way better games, i don't have time for this game anymore, much less gamble

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 27 January 2013 - 08:11 AM.

[Essence Snow]

jthamind, on 26 January 2013 - 08:55 PM, said:

i don't think that answers my question, because again, in your case you're getting an exotic back in the RANGE of 70-80. if you were getting a level 80 exotic back putting level 70s in, then sure, your method wins by a landslide. but since you have a 10 level gap that your exotics could fall in, i'm just wondering if that chance is much different than getting something back between two tiers and ONLY level 80. not to mention, your method is roughly twice as expensive per attempt.

i'm not even saying you're wrong, i'm just saying i'd want more concrete evidence. lol. for example, if there are a total of 100 exotic staves between 70-80 and 400 rare and exotic staves combined at level 80, then yeah, your method would be better. but i'd need proof of that, especially since, like i said, yours is more expensive to do. lol.



yeah, that's all i'm saying. but again, your method could be better if there are fewer exotic choices between 70-80 than there are rare/exotic at 80. i just honestly don't know if there are. lol.

also, i used staves in the example because i'm still hunting for The Legend. >

Just to see if what you are saying is/was an outcome I threw some exo's into the forge......3 lvl 70 shields and 1 lvl 80......in return I got a lvl 78<---not 80, etched bulwark of accuracy. At 1st I was excited as the name implies as it's the req for the corrupted bulwark...but it's lvl 78 and only sells fo 1g-ish and not the 17ish that the 80 sells for.

So as it turns out throwing the lower level exos isn't as good since you have the chance of non 80 lvl return, which is not part of the same loot table as precursor.

[Lucas Ashrock]

Clearly during the explanation he ,yes, skipped the faulty attempt using rares getting a rare.
Forgetting to mention if you use a 70 exotic, you have to deal with  promotion again, entering on the precursor loottable. Shortly, there isn't any difference between use 80 rares or 70 exotics. Both are a fail, gambling an 80 exotic. Which obiouvsly can be a precursor. The only realistic method giving a high chance is 4 80 exotics, hoping the roulette wheel spins on your side. Pray is not a 0 lol (bugged recipe eating your weapons not giving you any result, happened)

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 28 January 2013 - 05:13 AM.

[Calypso589]

Essence Snow, on 27 January 2013 - 05:34 PM, said:

Just to see if what you are saying is/was an outcome I threw some exo's into the forge......3 lvl 70 shields and 1 lvl 80......in return I got a lvl 78<---not 80, etched bulwark of accuracy. At 1st I was excited as the name implies as it's the req for the corrupted bulwark...but it's lvl 78 and only sells fo 1g-ish and not the 17ish that the 80 sells for.

So as it turns out throwing the lower level exos isn't as good since you have the chance of non 80 lvl return, which is not part of the same loot table as precursor.

You're right. The chance remains that using cheap level 70 exotics won't get you an 80 exo back but it's not much different than the alternative.

Use lvl 80 rares and perhaps get a level 80 exotic or rare. Two loot tables to choose from

or

Use lvl 70 exos and perhaps get an exo anywhere between level 70 and 80 or a precursor. Also two loot tables for the game to choose from.

Ultimately it comes down to which method is better for you financially since an individuals chances when using either method can be debated for days. It works either way simply due to RNG. I suppose players shouldn't pay too much attention to what types of weapons I used, but rather how I balanced myself out so that the effect multiple failures had on my toon's wallet was mitigated as much as possible. The biggest reason for all the hate towards the Mystic Forge comes from people who wasted and wasted and wasted and didn't try to spread things out and balance failure with success (i.e. money lost with money earned).

And again. PATIENCE is key here. lol

Edited by Calypso589, 28 January 2013 - 06:41 AM.

[Lucas Ashrock]

Patience and a huge waste of money with 80 exos attempting to reduce the loss as much as possible (there isn't , at the end is just a loss), yes.

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 29 January 2013 - 05:18 AM.

[Swarfega]

100g? I have been playing the game "normally" since day one and don't have 100g yet.  How are you guys generating so much gold?

[Lucas Ashrock]

100g are the average, honestly. Lots have 4-500g. Some way more. A little number of players is on the 4-5000g range

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 29 January 2013 - 12:34 PM.

[Noob On Steroid]

From all the numbers we've seen so far, the chances of promoting from rare to exotic are roughly 20%
So every 5 attempts you should get 1 exotic. This means that crafting 1 exotic takes either 16 rares (5 attempts, if you recycle the rares you get from the failed attempts) or 4 exotics. It is therefore better to use rares when the price of 4 rares is cheaper than the price of 1 exotic. This is almost always the case.

example for shield (since you used that):
1 rare lvl80 shield can be bought for (around) 27s
1 exotic lvl70 shield can be bought for (around) 70s
1 exotic lvl80 shield can be bought for (around) 1g21s

We'll need more research on the "level-promotion" of sub-80 exotics, but all in all, lvl80 rares seem to have the best "bang for your buck".

Edited by Noob On Steroid, 29 January 2013 - 01:04 PM.

[Lucas Ashrock]

Honestly, 20% is a myth you pinned using your experience, far from the truth. It's just a spin of a roulette. You can attempt 50 rares, getting 1 exo, or not even that one Clearly the rares attempt is cheaper, attempting a random spin of a slotmachine. But casino lesson n.1: the less you spend, the less you get

Edited by Lucas Ashrock, 29 January 2013 - 01:09 PM.

[Noob On Steroid]

Lucas Ashrock, on 29 January 2013 - 01:06 PM, said:

Honestly, 20% is a myth you pinned using your experience, far from the truth. It's just a spin of a roulette. You can attempt 50 rares, getting 1 exo, or not even that one Clearly the rares attempt is cheaper, attempting a random spin of a slotmachine. But casino lesson n.1: the less you spend, the less you get

I've never attempted to forge a precursor, but I've been keeping track of all attempts mentioned here: http://www.guildwars...sor-r-d-thread/ (just in case I ever do want to try).

Most figures with high sample sizes boil down to around 20%. That's not a myth, that's math. Even with a 20% chance you can still get extended streaks of no result at all. You can also get a bunch of successful tries in a row. That's how chance/RNG works. That does not change anything to the mathematical percentage of tries that get the desired result.