raspberry jam, on 25 February 2013 - 09:32 AM, said:
It's not impossible, it is a matter of calculating the probability.
I see no distributions in your calculations... How is weapon damage calculated? It is random, right? Is it an even distribution on the interval? In either case, taking the average (or any specific value) is of course not enough.
Number of hits is just a part of the clearing time, but the dodges and CC and such needs to be done anyway. If the number of hits go down the amount of dodges and CC and so on will go down as well, but such things usually need to be distributed across the DPS time anyway, so they can be ignored: calculating the number of hits is enough to determine if the clearing time goes down or not.
You don't need a distribution. The actual weapon damage is irrelevant; everything else remains the same. If I used a weapon damage of 1 instead of 1100 you'd see this:
(1982 * .5) / 1000 = .991
(1993 * .5) / 100 = .9965
(.9965 - .991) / .9965 = .00552 or the same approx. 0.55%.
Regardless of weapon damage we're looking at a 0.55% increase in damage per hit. Now, regarding the dodges, CC, etc. that's all relevant in the sense that it's not completely predictable. The mobs don't all fight identically, so each one may require a dodge at a different time, a utility use at a different time, etc. A good example is the little Karka on Southsun. Now, my mesmer eats them up... they're highly susceptible to reflects when they do their tail attacks. The only problem is that you're never entirely sure when they'll actually use it. Sometimes they'll lead with it, sometimes there's a notable delay (meaning more hits spent until the coup de'grace). Sometimes they'll fire it at a clone, in which case Feedback is a lovely choice. Sometimes they'll fire it at me, in which case I'm using the heal that reflects projectiles offensively instead of defensively. Then of course you need to add the variables such as clones up when you shatter (sometimes they kill the clones quickly, others not so much), other players, other aggro, etc.