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#1 Woutsie

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 12:16 PM

Over the past week I have bought 1600 gems with the gold I earned through playing. I used the gems for the Mining/Wood/Harvester tools.
However, I noticed the price for 100 gems is alot higher than it used to be. And it looks like it is still going up! How come?

Is it supposed to be still going up? Because I have 150 gold left, so I could just spend it all now on gems instead of waiting and then getting less gems for it...

Should I spend it all on gems now or wait till it drops? (if it even drops)

#2 Arava

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 12:40 PM

At the moment there is a lot of stuff in the shop that many people want to buy- all the sweet things that were one time only during the first year of GW2. So now that they are back many people want to buy them. They trade in their gold for gems and the price goes up. As soon as the special offers are over the price will drop again.
I would wait if I were you (as long as there isn't anything that you really want/ need).
Everytime there is something special in the shop the price for gems goes up, and then it goes down again.

#3 Captain Bulldozer

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 12:43 PM

The price of gems should go up when more people are buying it with gold rather than real world money.  Right now, with a lot of sales going on, I'd imagine the price is going up because more people want to take advantage of the sales but don't want to actually pay real money to do so..  I wouldn't expect the price of gems to keep going up unless people are really so dissatisfied with the game that they will no longer spend money on it.  While some people are certain feeling that way, it doesn't seem to be a critical mass just yet.

#4 Reason on Cooldown

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 01:34 PM

I'm having a hard time deciding what or how many of those endless harvest tools to buys.  I actually think the sickle is the best, for the reason that if you're a cook you need ingredients from all levels, but don't want to waste ori/mithril on low levels, but don't want to keep a ton of sickles around.  On the other had, you're usually only farming T5/6 ore/wood unless it's for a specific reason, i.e. leveling another crafting discipline, and can temporarily grab less expensive tools for that purpose.

#5 Nyid

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 01:46 PM

The black lion harvesting tools are entirely for the purpose of the special effects and convenience. If you're looking to save money through buying them you're expectations are way off. You could buy 1000 orichalcum pick/sickle/axe for the price of a single BL harvesting tool (assuming gems are 5g each). The odds of you using a tool 50-100k times in the next couple of years seem rather slim. Example: If you use the BL mining pick to gather 50 ore per day, it will take you 5.5 years to make up the cost difference.

As far as gem price goes, I expect it to depreciate significantly once the sales are over. The main gems are expensive is because Flame and Frost dyes went on sale. People know that these dyes will be desirable for large amounts of money (they already are actually, but the price will climb to pre-reintroductory levels) so everyone invested in them. That and there's currently a huge amount of gold in the player economy due to the farming associated with the Living Story. I'm guessing at this point the most gold exists in game than ever before.

#6 El Duderino

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 01:46 PM

View PostCaptain Bulldozer, on 31 August 2013 - 12:43 PM, said:

The price of gems should go up when more people are buying it with gold rather than real world money.  Right now, with a lot of sales going on, I'd imagine the price is going up because more people want to take advantage of the sales but don't want to actually pay real money to do so..  I wouldn't expect the price of gems to keep going up unless people are really so dissatisfied with the game that they will no longer spend money on it.  While some people are certain feeling that way, it doesn't seem to be a critical mass just yet.

Pretty much this. The price of gems goes up when people buy more gems with gold than with cash.

If you look at this chart: http://www.guildwarstrade.com/gems you can see that the price of gold to gems has risen steadily since August from $3.00 to $5.50 per 100 gems. It's a shame I can't track back further than that to see the historical data.

The question then becomes, why is this happening, and will it continue?

#7 Eon Lilu

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 02:05 PM

Anet have said in the past they control the conversion rate, but how much do they manipulate it?

#8 dss_live

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 02:19 PM

View PostEon Lilu, on 31 August 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

Anet have said in the past they control the conversion rate, but how much do they manipulate it?

Where did they say that?

#9 Electro Mouse

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 02:51 PM

Use your visa

#10 Eon Lilu

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 03:09 PM

View Postdss_live, on 31 August 2013 - 02:19 PM, said:

Where did they say that?

They control the conversion rate of gems to gold and vice versa so that players can't just constantly flip gems for instant profit, so they control the conversion rates so that it is always unprofitable to buy gems with gold and then sell them for instant profit back to gold right after. Otherwise everyone would make easy gold every 5 minutes just flipping gems back and forth, so anet control that to stop it happening, they have admitted this on many many occasions. This makes the gold to gems and vice versa conversions not a 100% player controlled market because it is partially controlled by arena net.

Just makes me wonder if they manipulate anything else when it comes to the gold / gems conversion rates.

Edited by Eon Lilu, 31 August 2013 - 03:09 PM.


#11 TGIFrisbie

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 03:14 PM

I want a link to where Anet "said they control conversion rates" on gems.  Smells of trolling to me.  Here is why:

You LOSE trying to flip gems.  The cost to post them and the cost to buy them have a percentage mark up that negates any profit.  There is no need to control prices with this in place.

Now, I do not doubt Anet *monitors* gem price fluctuations.

It's a supply and demand market.  More players have gold now than at launch, at launch you could buy 100 gems off the TP for 15s and less, now it's over 4g.  There were far more people playing at launch that wanted in-game money and bought gems with cash to sell.  More peeps with gold now, less need to pay cash, less gems bought with cash, more gems bought with gold, supply and demand.

#12 Gilles VI

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 03:15 PM

View PostEon Lilu, on 31 August 2013 - 03:09 PM, said:

They control the conversion rate of gems to gold and vice versa so that players can't just constantly flip gems for instant profit, so they control the conversion rates so that it is always unprofitable to buy gems with gold and then sell them for instant profit back to gold right after. Otherwise everyone would make easy gold every 5 minutes just flipping gems back and forth, so anet control that to stop it happening, they have admitted this on many many occasions. This makes the gold to gems and vice versa conversions not a 100% player controlled market because it is partially controlled by arena net.

Just makes me wonder if they manipulate anything else when it comes to the gold / gems conversion rates.

There is a tax on converting gold to gems, just like there is on the TP, to make it impossible to quickly flip gems for gold...
And NEVER did I read anything about Anet controlling conversion rate... I think you're just pulling that out of your ass..

@OP, prices are very high atm because of:
  • More people are buying gems with gold because of the sales.
  • More people are buying gems with gold because they simply get richer over time (otherwise known as inflation) and thus gemprices will keep rising aslong as the game exists.
  • More people are buying gems with gold because of the sudden influx of gold this months update has brought (gambit farming + champion farming)

Edited by Gilles VI, 31 August 2013 - 03:17 PM.


#13 Eon Lilu

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 04:18 PM

View PostGilles VI, on 31 August 2013 - 03:15 PM, said:

There is a tax on converting gold to gems, just like there is on the TP, to make it impossible to quickly flip gems for gold...
And NEVER did I read anything about Anet controlling conversion rate... I think you're just pulling that out of your ass..

@OP, prices are very high atm because of:
  • More people are buying gems with gold because of the sales.
  • More people are buying gems with gold because they simply get richer over time (otherwise known as inflation) and thus gemprices will keep rising aslong as the game exists.
  • More people are buying gems with gold because of the sudden influx of gold this months update has brought (gambit farming + champion farming)

Anet control the difference between the Gems to gold and the gold to gems with a constant that was set before launch. My bad choice of words when I said conversion rate, this "constant" is set by arena net and can be changed at any time so that players can not make quick gold off of flipping gems with gold. Thinks of it as an automatic and adjustable algorithm pre set by arena net to auto adjust the difference between the two conversion rates.

They don't control the supply and demand. That is completely different and separate. There is also a tax or fee involved as well yes but their own economist describes it as a spread that is set / forced by arena net it is roughly 15% both ways so 30% difference. This constant and spread are linked and auto adjusted to keep the difference between the two conversion rates within a certain amount. https://forum-en.gui...rst#post1344547

It is NOT 100% player controlled market.

Arena Net have influence over it and can choose to change that influence and how much it uses it whenever it likes, I just wonder if they ever do choose to change things or inch a little here and there to increase profits. It's completely possible to do with minor adjustments and barely any notice from the players. Especially around the times of holiday and event items in the gem store, it would be impossible for players to tell the difference between a price spike because of gem store items being popular or arena net making an adjustment.

Anyway there you go I just find this stuff interesting.

To the OP, the problem is after these gem store "sales" the price would go down so you could get more gems if you wait to use your gold, but then they could release a new gambling or popular thing in the gem store next week and suddenly the prices spike through the roof again, then you would lose out on gems because you waited.

Either way your taking a gamble or risk so you need to decide for yourself whether you think Anet will release more gem store stuff and do you think Arena net is going to let the gem prices fall? Or will they keep trying to push them up by throwing out more old sale items or discounts or other things in the store?

Personally I think Arena Net will always keep chucking stuff out the gem store and keep pushing up gem prices so people buy more gems with real life money....but that's just my personal opinion based on what I have seen and researched. I mean at this rate it might not even be worth playing the game anymore to get the stuff you want, instead you could just buy gems with real life cash, sell the gems for a crap ton of gold and just buy everything you want off the trading outpost.

Edited by Eon Lilu, 31 August 2013 - 04:59 PM.


#14 christiansoldier

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 04:57 PM

View PostEl Duderino, on 31 August 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

Pretty much this. The price of gems goes up when people buy more gems with gold than with cash.

If you look at this chart: http://www.guildwarstrade.com/gems you can see that the price of gold to gems has risen steadily since August from $3.00 to $5.50 per 100 gems. It's a shame I can't track back further than that to see the historical data.

The question then becomes, why is this happening, and will it continue?

This is an interesting trend.  Throwing out a quick theory that came to mind and reflects my situation is the people maybe converting less gems to gold because their demand for gold is going down.   In the past I converted quite a few gems to gold to equip my characters. Buying armor, weapons, dyes, trinkets, bags etc...  Once the characters are geared the need for gold has decrease and I have even accumulated a fair bit of gold via my casual game play.  I don't see a need for gold unless I want to buy an ascended weapon or something similar. I do still buy gems to purchase things from the gem store but no longer feel the need to convert them into gold.  If there are others like me it could reflect why there has been a drop in the conversion of gems for gold and explain the upward trend of gem prices for gold.

Edited by christiansoldier, 31 August 2013 - 04:57 PM.


#15 Arewn

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 05:06 PM

Over the past few patches, they've made gold easier and easire to get. The influx of extra gold is also contributing to the increased gem prices.

#16 El Duderino

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 05:54 PM

View Postchristiansoldier, on 31 August 2013 - 04:57 PM, said:

This is an interesting trend.  Throwing out a quick theory that came to mind and reflects my situation is the people maybe converting less gems to gold because their demand for gold is going down.   In the past I converted quite a few gems to gold to equip my characters. Buying armor, weapons, dyes, trinkets, bags etc...  Once the characters are geared the need for gold has decrease and I have even accumulated a fair bit of gold via my casual game play.  I don't see a need for gold unless I want to buy an ascended weapon or something similar. I do still buy gems to purchase things from the gem store but no longer feel the need to convert them into gold.  If there are others like me it could reflect why there has been a drop in the conversion of gems for gold and explain the upward trend of gem prices for gold.

That's a good point. With tons of other currencies out there that can't be traded for gold, that leaves gold to be more and more useless as the game progresses and characters get older.

I wonder how that will affect ANet's revenue and profits if gold becomes more readily available due to it being outclassed by other currencies? I mean, it isn't a secret that the strategy for ANet is to use micro-transactions as the basis for their revenue. Could they be shooting themselves in the foot by not allowing gold to be traded for something like laurels?

View PostArewn, on 31 August 2013 - 05:06 PM, said:

Over the past few patches, they've made gold easier and easire to get. The influx of extra gold is also contributing to the increased gem prices.

That would assume that it is being converted to gems. An influx of gold itself doesn't necessarily make the price of gems rise. But, if there is no other outlet for gold, then there is a good chance that is where they are going.

#17 pumpkin pie

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:11 PM

The gems prices shot up because of the living story events, you know how easy it is to get gold now! The only thing I can think of that is potentially bad is that the prices of gems will go so high that come one day, in game gold will be worthless vs gems hence everyone has to use real money to buy gems... which will be good for Arenanet but really bad for me.

#18 Gileas898

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:28 PM

Gem prices will continue to rise with each new crap loot piñata they choose to add under the joke living story.

This is intentional by Arena Net. They don't want a majority of the players to actually be able to buy anything without using real money.

#19 Arewn

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:35 PM

View PostEl Duderino, on 31 August 2013 - 05:54 PM, said:

That would assume that it is being converted to gems. An influx of gold itself doesn't necessarily make the price of gems rise. But, if there is no other outlet for gold, then there is a good chance that is where they are going.
I'm not sure that's quiet right. While sales are a major factor, and probably the biggest factor at the moment due to the current sales, gold availability is more integral then your post lets on.
Remember that the reason there are gems for gold in the first place is because people are buying gems with real money and selling them in game for gold. The easier it is to get gold, the less incentive there is to buy gems for cash and sell them for gold, atleast until gem/gold prices go up making it more worthwhile.
On one end, sales increases gem prices by increasing the amount of gems being bought, thus driving prices up by making them a hot comodity.
On the other end, ease of access to gold increases gem prices by decreasing the amount of people posting gems in the first place, as it becomes less worthwhile to do so.
One increases demand, the other reduces supply.

#20 christiansoldier

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:58 PM

View PostArewn, on 31 August 2013 - 06:35 PM, said:

I'm not sure that's quiet right. While sales are a major factor, and probably the biggest factor at the moment due to the current sales, gold availability is more integral then your post lets on.
Remember that the reason there are gems for gold in the first place is because people are buying gems with real money and selling them in game for gold. The easier it is to get gold, the less incentive there is to buy gems for cash and sell them for gold, atleast until gem/gold prices go up making it more worthwhile.
On one end, sales increases gem prices by increasing the amount of gems being bought, thus driving prices up by making them a hot comodity.
On the other end, ease of access to gold increases gem prices by decreasing the amount of people posting gems in the first place, as it becomes less worthwhile to do so.
One increases demand, the other reduces supply.

I agree with this post and it parallels my game experience with gems/gold.  In the beginning I converted a lot of gems to gold to gear my characters.  Now that they are geared my demand for gold has dropped off.  It is also easier for even the casual gamer like myself to acquire gold in game which also decreases my need to convert gems to gold in the future. The recent sale cause an increase demand for gems which I paid for with my credit card but I spent those gems directly in the gem store.  I don't plan on converting the left over gems to gold since I don't really need anymore gold at the moment.

If my experience is typical of the average casual gamer then the price of gems to gold in the future will probably continue to rise.  Gold is easier to get so I don't have to buy as much.  There are less things I need to buy with gold because I already have the equipment I need.

The only way to reverse the trend would be to increase the demand to buy gold with gems.  They would need to introduce some items into the game that I can only purchase with gold that cost a lot.  Maybe that is why they are introducing ascended weapons.

#21 El Duderino

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:09 PM

View PostArewn, on 31 August 2013 - 06:35 PM, said:

I'm not sure that's quiet right. While sales are a major factor, and probably the biggest factor at the moment due to the current sales, gold availability is more integral then your post lets on.
Remember that the reason there are gems for gold in the first place is because people are buying gems with real money and selling them in game for gold. The easier it is to get gold, the less incentive there is to buy gems for cash and sell them for gold, atleast until gem/gold prices go up making it more worthwhile.
On one end, sales increases gem prices by increasing the amount of gems being bought, thus driving prices up by making them a hot comodity.
On the other end, ease of access to gold increases gem prices by decreasing the amount of people posting gems in the first place, as it becomes less worthwhile to do so.
One increases demand, the other reduces supply.

I don't think we are disagreeing at all. Your post is spot on. I was just saying that a larger pool of gold in the game, in itself, isn't sufficient to drive up gem prices. It is the act of converting that gold to gems that helps inflate the price. It was really just a nit-picky aside to your comment because I understood where you were going, but I didn't think you had quite verbalized the connection in your post.

View Postchristiansoldier, on 31 August 2013 - 06:58 PM, said:

The only way to reverse the trend would be to increase the demand to buy gold with gems.  They would need to introduce some items into the game that I can only purchase with gold that cost a lot.  Maybe that is why they are introducing ascended weapons.

Agreed. And, I'm not sure I know 100% how the ascended weapons thing is going to work, but a couple posts have me scratching my head as to whether there will be an ease of using gold to gain the materials needed for ascended weapons. A few posts have me thinking that will not be the case. Any updates here would be helpful. As it stand, unless something does happen, you are correct, there isn't a whole lot of reason to continue to convert gems to gold, which will help push the price of gems even higher. Although, it could be noted that will make the price of gems per $ much less for those using a credit card.

I wonder if we eventually see an inflation of gem prices for new store items?

#22 davadude

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:16 PM

View PostEl Duderino, on 31 August 2013 - 07:09 PM, said:

Agreed. And, I'm not sure I know 100% how the ascended weapons thing is going to work, but a couple posts have me scratching my head as to whether there will be an ease of using gold to gain the materials needed for ascended weapons. A few posts have me thinking that will not be the case. Any updates here would be helpful. As it stand, unless something does happen, you are correct, there isn't a whole lot of reason to continue to convert gems to gold, which will help push the price of gems even higher. Although, it could be noted that will make the price of gems per $ much less for those using a credit card.

The problem with utilizing ascended weapons for the argument is that we have to yet see them updated.  SignsOfKelani (Kelani) had a video uploaded today in which he discusses the ascended weapons as per the footage seen in the developer livestream.  It seems that there is still not reason to have to buy gems for ascended, as every higher level or elite task (world bosses, metas, champions, WvWvW, PvP) introduces some sort of linear progression towards the goal of the materials required.

In terms of adding worthy items to the game store... they have not yet added any facilitation items into the gem store, and given their position on that idea, never will.  Thus, it will rely entirely on cosmetics.
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#23 Conkers

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:38 PM

View Postdavadude, on 31 August 2013 - 07:16 PM, said:

In terms of adding worthy items to the game store... they have not yet added any facilitation items into the gem store, and given their position on that idea, never will.  Thus, it will rely entirely on cosmetics.

Given they've already backtracked on what they spent years hyping the game on, their current position is zero guarantee that won't backtrack on only cosmetics in the AH, their word is not worth much.

Nor would they be the first to backtrack on exactly this issue, LOTRO once promised that their store would only ever be for "convenience, never advantage", they went back on that.

Large games companies are about as trustworthy as second hand car salesmen.

#24 davadude

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:39 PM

View PostConkers, on 31 August 2013 - 07:38 PM, said:


Given they've already backtracked on what they spent years hyping the game on, their current position is zero guarantee that won't backtrack on only cosmetics in the AH, their word is not worth much.

Nor would they be the first to backtrack on exactly this issue, LOTRO once promised that their store would only ever be for "convenience, never advantage", they went back on that.

Large games companies are about as trustworthy as second hand car salesmen.

Arenanet had a cash store in GW1, and it offered convenience unlocks, but never a game defining or required unlock.  That was a track record of 4 years.  So far, it's 5 years.
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#25 Conkers

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:01 PM

View Postdavadude, on 31 August 2013 - 07:39 PM, said:

Arenanet had a cash store in GW1, and it offered convenience unlocks, but never a game defining or required unlock.  That was a track record of 4 years.  So far, it's 5 years.

Your word does not count for much once you've broken it, they spent years promoting GW2 in Q&A sessions, interviews, blogs, etc on the basis it would not have vertical progression, that it would be optional and progression would be through things like cosmetics, achievements, etc as in Colin Johansons blog post :

"The rarest items in the game are not more powerful than other items, so you don’t need them to be the best"

"We don’t need to make mandatory gear treadmills, we make all of it optional, so those who find it fun to chase this prestigious gear can do so, but those who don’t are just as powerful"

They broke that within a few months of the game's launch, Arenanet's word counts for very little these days, but then it is a different company these days.

Edited by Conkers, 31 August 2013 - 08:04 PM.


#26 davadude

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:08 PM

View PostConkers, on 31 August 2013 - 08:01 PM, said:

Your word does not count for much once you've broken it, they spent years promoting GW2 in Q&A sessions, interviews, blogs, etc on the basis it would not have vertical progression, that it would be optional and progression would be through things like cosmetics, achievements, etc as in Colin Johansons blog post :

"The rarest items in the game are not more powerful than other items, so you don’t need them to be the best"

"We don’t need to make mandatory gear treadmills, we make all of it optional, so those who find it fun to chase this prestigious gear can do so, but those who don’t are just as powerful"

They broke that within a few months of the game's launch, Arenanet's word counts for very little these days, but then it is a different company these days.

Those are game design issues.  Utilizing real money post-purchase to provide an unbeatable advantage would be an ethical issue.  The first ones can be changed, with flak from the community, without major drawbacks.  Break the second... you're screwed.
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#27 Conkers

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:31 PM

View Postdavadude, on 31 August 2013 - 08:08 PM, said:

Those are game design issues.  Utilizing real money post-purchase to provide an unbeatable advantage would be an ethical issue.  The first ones can be changed, with flak from the community, without major drawbacks.  Break the second... you're screwed.

I'd call selling a product to your customers on one basis then doing a 180 on that within months of launch an ethical issue, in other industries companies end up in court. As for "being screwed", not really, LOTRO went back on their word years ago, they are still trundling on, of course people left over it, particularly as it increased from one item, to two, to three..., but then the same thing happened in GW2, I know plenty who quit in November when they introduced ascended, I also know more who have quit now over the latest escalation of it, especially those who only really play for WvW or like to play multiple characters.

Edited by Conkers, 31 August 2013 - 08:36 PM.


#28 davadude

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:13 PM

View PostConkers, on 31 August 2013 - 08:31 PM, said:

but then the same thing happened in GW2, I know plenty who quit in November when they introduced ascended, I also know more who have quit now over the latest escalation of it, especially those who only really play for WvW or like to play multiple characters.

"I know.. I know..."

I hate to break it to you, but you can never have an accurate sample size that represents the player base.
Davadude - Guru Village Idiot

#29 El Duderino

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:33 PM

View Postdavadude, on 31 August 2013 - 07:16 PM, said:



The problem with utilizing ascended weapons for the argument is that we have to yet see them updated.  SignsOfKelani (Kelani) had a video uploaded today in which he discusses the ascended weapons as per the footage seen in the developer livestream.  It seems that there is still not reason to have to buy gems for ascended, as every higher level or elite task (world bosses, metas, champions, WvWvW, PvP) introduces some sort of linear progression towards the goal of the materials required.

In terms of adding worthy items to the game store... they have not yet added any facilitation items into the gem store, and given their position on that idea, never will.  Thus, it will rely entirely on cosmetics.

I think again you may be missing what I am trying to say. If ascended weapons don't offer some kind of gold sink, as in, gold can be used to obtain the materials necessary to make them, then we will continue to see the abundance of gold accumulate in players storage with nothing to use it on except gems. This will cause the gem prices to inflate.

In order to correct this problem in terms of revenue through micro-transactions, the price of gemstore items will need to be inflated as well because $1 will buy more gems as they rise in price for gold.



#30 Conkers

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:51 PM

View Postdavadude, on 31 August 2013 - 09:13 PM, said:

"I know.. I know..."

I hate to break it to you, but you can never have an accurate sample size that represents the player base.

I hate to break it to you, but I didn't make any claims about whether the actions I described represent the player base or not, I was merely pointing out that people have left over this issue and that despite your claims that a company is screwed if they add non-cosmetic items to the cash shop that LOTRO did just that years ago and is still trundling on...

Edited by Conkers, 31 August 2013 - 10:01 PM.





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