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Will Arena Net just let Guild Wars 2 die?


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#1 Arkham Creed

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:17 AM

I know how absurd that sounds, and there was a time not long ago I would have been among the first to dismiss it. This morning in fact. But things that have happened and been said as of this newest patch have made me not so sure anymore. In fact I now fear that Arena Net has “gone bullfrog.” Here is what I mean; there is an old saying based on an experiment someone once conducted. It goes as follows.

If you toss a bullfrog into a pot of boiling water it will recognize the danger and jump out. But if you toss a bullfrog into a pot of cool water and slowly bring it to a boil it will just sit there….and sit there….and sit there….until it dies from the heat.

This is my fear for Arena Net. We’ve all heard of those interviews wherein this or that developer states that they are comfortable with the game as it is and the drop off in the player base is expected and within acceptable levels. But really I’m not sure of that. Now I know the obvious response to that is the old arguments about how Arena Net knows more than we do, and has all these statistics and metrics and such. A nice ideal to be sure, but I’ve seen far too many issues from the trivial to the significant be completely ignored for far too long not to be worried. I myself have an account issue with outstanding support ticket since November. And that isn’t factoring in the many known and often complained about in-game issues.

But that isn’t the worst part. Based on statements made by developers and community managers have led many on the official forums to believe something….well, frightening. Arena Net is so complacent that they are actually planning to allow the game to stagnate in its current form with no planned updates of any kind until sometime in July. At the earliest. Can the game really survive that? Should it? Should a game all but abandoned by its developers really drag out for so long? I mean it isn’t like we have an abundance of content to tide us over; the game was old and stale before Arena Net started giving us all those temporary Living World updates. Can WvW season two and Fractals alone really keep the community happy for that long? What about PvE players? What about those who just don’t enjoy Fractals? Screw us, right?

But now I find myself thinking something I never would have thought I’d be thinking this time last year or the year before. I want Guild Wars 2 to fail. I want it to die before July. I want the servers to shrink and fade as the vast majority of the community abandons the game. Not because I don’t like it, not out of spite, and not because I want to see it die. Just the opposite really; I want Arena Net to fight for it. I want them struggle and work and earn every player they have, and earn back every players they’ve lost. I don’t want Arena Net to sit by complacently allowing the game to die; I want them to take action. I know my opinion doesn’t count for much on these forums or in this life, but I don’t care. At this point I think it’s time to boil the bullfrog.

Edited by Arkham Creed, 19 March 2014 - 12:34 AM.


#2 Shayne Hawke

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 01:05 AM

ArenaNet won't let it die, but NCsoft will, if it stops being profitable.  Ask the people who hate the game or its direction but still spend money to buy gems or even use the gem exchange why they won't let the game die.

#3 Graka

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 01:54 AM

You might as well ask if water will allow a fish to die. Like seriously what the hell. I thought it was just me but really GW2guru's conversations over the last few months have gone seriously off the rails into tin foil hat territory. Its starting to get slightly ridiculous, whats next, the Illuminati is manipulating gems, Aliens are probing players for pay to win, Anet's staff is actually lizard people bent on world domination. Like really.

#4 Arkham Creed

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:17 AM

View PostShayne Hawke, on 19 March 2014 - 01:05 AM, said:

ArenaNet won't let it die, but NCsoft will, if it stops being profitable.  Ask the people who hate the game or its direction but still spend money to buy gems or even use the gem exchange why they won't let the game die.

Well that is another thing; have you actually looked at the gem exchange recently? The gold cost of gems is absurd, literally ten times or more what it was in the early days. And those gems aren't spawned out of nowhere; someone had to buy them with real cash. Basic supply and demand means that there aren’t that many gems going around. But at the same time I haven’t seen but one Zodiac armor set, two heart weapon skins, and zero of the other recent weapon and armor sets in spite of playing across three servers. And I haven’t seen a gem store gathering tool since the Molten Pickaxe.

People aren’t selling gems anymore. At least not as much. And By the looks of things people aren’t spending them either. I don’t think the game is as profitable as you think.

Edited by Arkham Creed, 19 March 2014 - 02:17 AM.


#5 ben911993

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:32 AM

View PostShayne Hawke, on 19 March 2014 - 01:05 AM, said:

ArenaNet won't let it die, but NCsoft will, if it stops being profitable.

I think this is really the crux of it. ArenaNet are proud of their work and love what they've made (at least, I should hope!) and they won't want to watch it die. They'll do what they can to keep it alive. Which means keeping the game profitable for NC Soft. Which in turn means more gem store items and garbage updates. But it won't die, not for a while.

#6 Arkham Creed

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:37 AM

View Postben911993, on 19 March 2014 - 02:32 AM, said:

Which in turn means more gem store items and garbage updates. But it won't die, not for a while.


Ah, but that is what inspired me to create this post; they aren't even going to do garbage updates. Nothing; they are going to do nothing until July. If we're lucky.

#7 Shayne Hawke

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 03:16 AM

View PostArkham Creed, on 19 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

Well that is another thing; have you actually looked at the gem exchange recently? The gold cost of gems is absurd, literally ten times or more what it was in the early days. And those gems aren't spawned out of nowhere; someone had to buy them with real cash. Basic supply and demand means that there aren’t that many gems going around. But at the same time I haven’t seen but one Zodiac armor set, two heart weapon skins, and zero of the other recent weapon and armor sets in spite of playing across three servers. And I haven’t seen a gem store gathering tool since the Molten Pickaxe.

People aren’t selling gems anymore. At least not as much. And By the looks of things people aren’t spending them either. I don’t think the game is as profitable as you think.

At least one of three things is true:
  • Gems are spawned out of thin air through the gem exchange.  Buying gems with gold deletes your gold and creates gems, and buying gold with gems deletes your gems and creates gold.  There is no transfer between two people with one person's gold and another person's gems.  If this weren't true, the gem exchange may have been dead from the start, because no gems or gold would have existed in the exchange to complete anyone's transactions, or
  • ANet put a bunch of gold and gems in the exchange from the start, which they had created out of thin air.  People extract the gems out of this system by exchanging for them with the gold they generate through gameplay, gradually raising the price.
  • Equal amounts of buy and sell orders of gems on the exchange tend to make the price of buying gems higher.
In either case, Spidy seems to show plenty of activity in the gem exchange, and earnings reports seem to suggest that GW2 is raking in cash just fine right now.

#8 MazingerZ

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:44 AM

View PostShayne Hawke, on 19 March 2014 - 03:16 AM, said:

At least one of three things is true:
  • Gems are spawned out of thin air through the gem exchange.  Buying gems with gold deletes your gold and creates gems, and buying gold with gems deletes your gems and creates gold.  There is no transfer between two people with one person's gold and another person's gems.  If this weren't true, the gem exchange may have been dead from the start, because no gems or gold would have existed in the exchange to complete anyone's transactions, or

  • ANet put a bunch of gold and gems in the exchange from the start, which they had created out of thin air.  People extract the gems out of this system by exchanging for them with the gold they generate through gameplay, gradually raising the price.

  • Equal amounts of buy and sell orders of gems on the exchange tend to make the price of buying gems higher.
In either case, Spidy seems to show plenty of activity in the gem exchange, and earnings reports seem to suggest that GW2 is raking in cash just fine right now.

This is wrong.  Gems are spawned when cash is expended and gold is spawned through in-game effort of killing things.  The theory behind the exchange is when when people exchange cash for gems, gems are given/generated based on a predetermined value, initially.  When more gold is spent, gold prices go up to reflect a demand for gems.  Theoretically, when gem is used to purchase gold, gem value goes up because more people want gold.  This 'supply and demand' for both gold and gems.  This is on top of fees for the process, which is really just overhead.

ArenaNet created an initial pot for the exchange and theoretically, only player demand has adjusted the value of gems vs gold.  (You know, ArenaNet would never do something like adjust costs when a major update with hot items came out to force more players to expend cash instead of gold).

A high gold value is indicative of players expending gold to purchase gems, but fewer people are converting their gems to gold.  Instead, people are probably expending cash for gems directly if gems are being generated at all.  Ultimately, the question becomes whether the gold prices naturally depreciate when no one is exchanging gems for gold, or if we have to wait for people to decide to expend gems to buy up gold.  And then it becomes a question of when it becomes necessary to expend cash to buy gold and whether the price is being adjusted to maintain revenue levels.

It's a funny money system maintained by the developers on their word, with no transparency or reports on exchanges or revenue.  The only certainty is how much gems costs per dollar and costs of items for gems at the time of conversion.  Even without the gross fees on the exchange rate (15% tax), it'd be somewhat foolish to try and 'invest' in such a system either way.

This is why the EVE system is more preferable, because that market's managed by the players.  PLEX is a flat dollar rate and also converts to Aurem (gems) at a flat rate.  Both the items bought with Aurum from the cash shop and PLEX are sold to other players for in-game currency.  Since the fluctuating prices are dictated by EVE's playerbase, its probably the most transparent way of exchanging cash for in-game currency sustained by a developer.

Edited by MazingerZ, 19 March 2014 - 04:44 AM.

It's okay to enjoy crap if you're willing to admit it's crap.
Every patch is like ArenaNet walking out onto the stage of the International Don't Kitten Up Championship, and then proceeding to shiv itself in the stomach 30 times while screaming "IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD! IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

#9 gw2guruaccount

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:56 AM

I wonder if, someday, an MMORPG will be released without the deathcloud? There is no MMORPG of popular note in history that hasn't faced the "is it over? did they give up?" routine. Mind you games come and go and with the speed of development and height of competition there may be a genuine reason to be concerned about plug-and-play mechanics. It's somewhat like Bethesda with it's highly modifiable game releases; eventually the players just make the game while the base is sold and maybe a few extensions for some extra cashflow. CDIs etc. are about the same direction just without direct coding interactivity.

#10 Minion

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:36 AM

Anet left guild wars to die after two years before moving onto their cash cow. Why would this time be any different?

#11 leongrado

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:53 AM

I don't even see where this is coming from. They're working on a lot of content just as a company who's releasing an expansion would. They need time...

#12 rukia

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:56 AM

They abandoned GW1 so who is to say they won't with GW2? Well they make a lot more money now with their living gem shop updates so.. probably not I guess.

#13 raspberry jam

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 09:43 AM

View PostArkham Creed, on 19 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

Well that is another thing; have you actually looked at the gem exchange recently? The gold cost of gems is absurd, literally ten times or more what it was in the early days. And those gems aren't spawned out of nowhere; someone had to buy them with real cash. Basic supply and demand means that there aren’t that many gems going around. But at the same time I haven’t seen but one Zodiac armor set, two heart weapon skins, and zero of the other recent weapon and armor sets in spite of playing across three servers. And I haven’t seen a gem store gathering tool since the Molten Pickaxe.

People aren’t selling gems anymore. At least not as much. And By the looks of things people aren’t spending them either. I don’t think the game is as profitable as you think.
Both gems and gold are spawned out of nowhere. Gems are spawned out of nowhere when you pay ANet. Money is not converted into gems. The money still exists, but it's in ANet's bank account now instead of yours. When you pay them they literally spawn gems out of nowhere.

And the price of gems vs. gold is so high because it's the most profitable price. At this particular price, the amount of gold acquired by selling gems is the exact amount that attracts people the most into buying gems while still letting the actual gold retain some value. Now this is not the result of ANet price fixing but merely the normal result of having two virtual currencies in this setup.

#14 Desild

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:25 AM

How can something that lost its soul be alive to begin with? This game is a lumbering undead zombie craving for brains gem store revenue.

I for one welcome my new CCP overlords. At least in EVE, when the players found themselves in this exact situation we find ourselves in on Guild Wars 2, they didn't resort to denial or white knighting. They didn't bickered amongst themselves on the forums. They rebelled!

Until the day comes where people join me, MazingerZ, ElDuderino, and all the others out there who want to make a difference, in one final push against ArenaNet's callousness, this game will remain undead. Now and forever.

#15 Azure Skye

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:46 AM

View PostArkham Creed, on 19 March 2014 - 12:17 AM, said:

But now I find myself thinking something I never would have thought I’d be thinking this time last year or the year before. I want Guild Wars 2 to fail. I want it to die before July. I want the servers to shrink and fade as the vast majority of the community abandons the game. Not because I don’t like it, not out of spite, and not because I want to see it die. Just the opposite really; I want Arena Net to fight for it. I want them struggle and work and earn every player they have, and earn back every players they’ve lost. I don’t want Arena Net to sit by complacently allowing the game to die; I want them to take action. I know my opinion doesn’t count for much on these forums or in this life, but I don’t care. At this point I think it’s time to boil the bullfrog.

View PostGraka, on 19 March 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

You might as well ask if water will allow a fish to die. Like seriously what the hell. I thought it was just me but really GW2guru's conversations over the last few months have gone seriously off the rails into tin foil hat territory. Its starting to get slightly ridiculous, whats next, the Illuminati is manipulating gems, Aliens are probing players for pay to win, Anet's staff is actually lizard people bent on world domination. Like really.
I thought some people here on Guru hated the Living Story? Wait, you want the living story to come back and still be going out with updates, that's a first. They told us they needed break to do expansions worth type of content or something along those lines but don't quote me. it's been a while since i read the interview.

And i agree, Graka whole hardheartedly.

Edited by Azure Skye, 19 March 2014 - 10:46 AM.


#16 Baron von Scrufflebutt

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:47 AM

I don't think the game is going to ever become the amazing game we want it to be, but I also think that the majority of the current player base doesn't have a problem with that. The game having no monthly fees is probably the reason that is keeping the current population playing, and I don't see that changing any time soon, thus, I don't see a mass exodus in store for GW2.

#17 Ukerric

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:48 AM

View Postrukia, on 19 March 2014 - 05:56 AM, said:

They abandoned GW1 so who is to say they won't with GW2?
They will. The question is never "if" but "when".

The answer for this question appears to be "not in the foreseeable future".

Now, if we hear rumors of GW3, then it's the time to worry...

#18 raspberry jam

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:42 PM

Hmm BTW on topic unlike my previous post: I think that one reason for ANet to be hanging back a bit is the upcoming Elder Scrolls Online release. Imagine this: ESO is released, GW2 loses some players to it. Then just about the time when the first wave of players start to beat the game/exhaust content, ANet releases some fabulous update and win a lot of players back. Meanwhile ZOS will be reeling from the usual "how did players get through it all so fast??" syndrome and won't be able to react in time to stop their playerbase from bleeding away back to GW2.

Edited by raspberry jam, 19 March 2014 - 12:43 PM.


#19 Mordakai

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:05 PM

View Postraspberry jam, on 19 March 2014 - 12:42 PM, said:

Hmm BTW on topic unlike my previous post: I think that one reason for ANet to be hanging back a bit is the upcoming Elder Scrolls Online release. Imagine this: ESO is released, GW2 loses some players to it. Then just about the time when the first wave of players start to beat the game/exhaust content, ANet releases some fabulous update and win a lot of players back. Meanwhile ZOS will be reeling from the usual "how did players get through it all so fast??" syndrome and won't be able to react in time to stop their playerbase from bleeding away back to GW2.

I agree, and I also think NCsoft is involved so GW2 does not eclipse the release date of Wildstar.

I am waiting for a unique GW2 item for those that buy Wildstar...  like the Aion wings in GW1.

Edited by Mordakai, 19 March 2014 - 02:06 PM.


#20 davadude

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:34 PM

View PostGraka, on 19 March 2014 - 01:54 AM, said:

You might as well ask if water will allow a fish to die. Like seriously what the hell. I thought it was just me but really GW2guru's conversations over the last few months have gone seriously off the rails into tin foil hat territory. Its starting to get slightly ridiculous, whats next, the Illuminati is manipulating gems, Aliens are probing players for pay to win, Anet's staff is actually lizard people bent on world domination. Like really.

This. 1001n times this.  Don't you guys ever get bored of your constant, identical, baseless topics with circular discussions?

View PostMinion, on 19 March 2014 - 05:36 AM, said:

Anet left guild wars to die after two years before moving onto their cash cow. Why would this time be any different?

Wait, what?  Guild Wars was supported for over six years, and continues to receive support and holiday updates up to this day.  Sure, there are no more actual content patches, but server updates, game updates, and rotations are still updated and supported, with bug fixes when needed (obviously rare due to automation, but still).

View PostArkham Creed, on 19 March 2014 - 02:37 AM, said:

Ah, but that is what inspired me to create this post; they aren't even going to do garbage updates. Nothing; they are going to do nothing until July. If we're lucky.

The game had no update from launch until the end of October 2012.  That was a longer time than what we're about to have... not to mention, they already announced the feature patch before the end of May (<1.5 months), and we will continue to see QoL patches until then.
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#21 Cordley

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:45 PM

Despite so many Living Story updates, the core game is stale. But their target audience doesn't mind it, since they play so little that there is always something new to try and a new gem store skin to buy. Old stagers, on the other hand, complain about only one PvP mode, PvDoor zergfest in WvW, boring and unchallenging PvE, poor overall balancing, ubiquitous timegating and checklisting, lack of meaningful progression and important features missing, like GvG or housing.


View Postdavadude, on 19 March 2014 - 02:34 PM, said:

The game had no update from launch until the end of October 2012.
The game was new back then and two months wasn't enough to get bored with all of it.

#22 Feathermoore

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:53 PM

All games die eventually. There really isn't anything discussable that isn't discussed elsewhere in other threads. Going to close this as it isn't possible to have a constructive discussion about this.

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