And to a certain extent, their strategy is pretty clear, they're going to add pvp content over time, then introduce real rewards in order to draw people over from the robust pve playerbase they've built. From there, they're hoping to get decent stream involvement and word of mouth which will pull back the previous drop-outs. The sad part is: Its a pretty *ing good strategy. Get raw numbers by developing pve content, then segue into esports when the development is done. The only people who get *ed over are the people who bought the game for pvp from the start.
As for the diversion argument, you might be entirely correct, but given the long cooldown of the chain, the easy method of stopping it, and its inability to drop people who aren't specced for full glass, it seems that pointing out the plentiful and easy-to-use defensive options is a valid retort. Guardian hammer 4, for instance, is incredibly powerful for decapping and capping points in guardian v point holder shitfests. You save dodges specifically for that skill because of how strong the knockback is. That said, the ability to dodge it is central to how those fights play out. Pretending that the skill should be nerfed because it attracts dodges rather than, say, the guardian's auto chain, is absurd. Same applies to this.
First off, the thief combo you're talking about requires the thief to be unstealthed and within 900 range of you. You can see it coming if you bother to look around. Thieves rarely hit a steal at exactly 900 range, either, because the penalty to an out of range whiff is a full cooldown.
Second, your math is wrong, demonstrably so. A big chunk of thief damage comes from their critical strikes grandmaster talent. Steal and CnD in tpvp deal around 4k each on crits. Lets be nice and pretend that steal applies rage before the mug damage calculation, which means that there's a 49% chance that both hits crit with a full crit build. If either of those miss, you're down to 2k for the hit. Now here's where stuff gets fun.
If you crit on both against a full glass individual, you've dropped them by 8k. If their total hp is under 15k, you're now dealing extra on the backstab. Great. If they didn't both crit, no build in the game, including glassy ones, will activate the additional 20% damage. Against glass, you typically backstab for 6k. When they're under 50% hp, that goes up to mid 7k figures. Note the difference between 4k+4k+7.5k and 4k+2k+6k.
Oh, and wait, those backstabs are crits. Another 30% chance that doesn't work.
The first gibs a full glass build at 15k hp, which is where glass thieves and elementalists run. The second does 12k damage, which does not kill a single class in the game.
In tpvp, you don't have food that increases your precision and power or crit rate and crit dmg %. You also don't get the same gear options. Again, if you want to compare numbers, go beat on some golems. I'm not rolling a warrior or mesmer and leveling to 80, getting a set of full exotics, then making a youtube video for you because you're too lazy to get actual tpvp numbers to compare against. Are thieves broken in wvwvw? I don't *ing know. Nor do I really care. All I know is that whining from that area of the game has been used to inform balance changes which have substantially *ed with tpvp, especially when wvwvw's massive blobs of bullshit make playing a thief reliant on culling errors anyways.
Still, I'm really sorry that your ping makes you rage at things that require reactions. Maybe we should balance counterstrike with 250ms in mind and make headshots not do any extra damage, because that would be unfair to the people who are forced to mash buttons and spray.
Proof, please. It's very easy to make up numbers on the Internets, and your entire posts hinges on what you admit yourself are made-up, theoretical numbers.
That being said? Your theorycrafting is extremely light on actual information, disregards stuff like Assassin's Signet/sigils, and relies far too much on "what skills usually hit for." So is your theorycrafting backed up by actual ingame footage of sPvP and the basic art of addition?
Just to help you a little bit and provide video evidence for your "claims," here's a video which completely corroborates your unfounded statements!
Except... no, it doesn't.
1:03. There goes that Thief with that super-weak 15k-max burst on a Warrior! Except... wait... 3.4k and stun, 1.4k, 1.4k, 4.2k, and then 10k. Again, on a Warrior. Hmm! That looks a bit like 20k to me!
Since you're doubtless going to cherrypick the video for why the Warrior was a terrible player, here's another segment of the same video: 2:24. 2.4k and cripple, 3.8k and stun, 3.4k, and then 7.2k. 16.8k burst on a Guardian,and the Thief wasn't even finished before the Guardian was downed.
(EDIT: for one last counterpoint brought to you by the crummy built-in Microsoft calculator itself, check 5:31. 3.4k + immobilize (so no stunbreak), 4k, 7.4k, 6.7k, down, 21k damage total, burst still not finished. Is three good enough for you?)
This video is chock-full of footage of the Thief putting out burst that far outpaces your theoretical numbers. If you don't like the footage in this video for whatever contrived reason of people making mistakes in video games and thus being shit-tier players, I can always find more footage. If you don't like his build too bad: we argue about the potential of Thief burst, we use a burst build, not some shitty pseudo-burst build which uses no sigils or Assassin's Signet.
There you go. Actual sPvP footage of Thief bursts that far outpaces your hashed-together burst ceiling, that doesn't rely entirely on made-up data.