But beeing that close to bankruptcy, I decided to never ever gamble again.
So here's my final statistics:
24.796 rare lvl 80 weapons (counting in the rares i got back).
+ an additional 1248 exotics.
- Always used 4 weapons of the same type
- I've mainly used A+A+B+B, but sometimes also A+A+A+A
- ALWAYS sold exotics on the TP, never used them to gamble. (I dont think it makes a difference, wheter an exotic you get out of the MF was made by 4 rare lvl 80s or 4 exotics. It just takes 16rares to get one rather than 4 exotics. Assuming the same chance of getting the precursor, gambling with rares is alot less moneyconsuming. This assumption is of course open to dispute, I and probably noone else have enough data to (dis)prove it. )
- Chance of getting an exotic by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares: 20,13% (equals 16rares, cause you get back 4 that you can just throw in again)
- It doesn't seem to make a difference, wheter you're using A+A+A+A or A+A+B+B or A+B+C+D (at least it didnt for me)
- Chance of getting a precursor by throwing in 4 lvl 80 rares for me: 0,1936% (equals ~517 forges)
- Staves seem to be the most efficient weapon when it comes to profitmaking. Exotics get bought quicker and yield a higher profit, costs to craft them are lower (daggers come closest to staves, gs afterwards)
- If you're going to gamble too, make sure to have enough spare money, cause alot of it gets bound to mats and exotics! (Really ALOT...)
RNG at its finest:
- Dusk: took me ~ 3550 rares
- Dawn ~ 50 rares
- Legend ~ 950rares
- Spark ~ 780 rares
- Zap ~ 330 rares
- Legend ~ 3200 rares
- Legend ~ 1500 rares
- Colossus ~ 400 rares
- Lover ~ 2450 rares
- Spark ~ 8900 rares (ive used 8200 GS rares without any precursor, and then swapped to daggers....)
- Colossus ~ 280 rares
- Legend ~ 2400 rares
Hope this helps some ppl. Since I decided to stop gambling, there will be no further input from my side.