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MrIllusion

Member Since 09 Oct 2010
Offline Last Active Aug 26 2013 09:37 AM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Do you still play GW2, and why?

25 August 2013 - 11:01 AM

Spoiler

Mod Edit: Do not post like this. Quote wars detracts from conversations and bloats posts unnecessarily.

In Topic: Do you still play GW2, and why?

24 August 2013 - 07:57 AM

View PostMhenlo, on 22 August 2013 - 12:44 PM, said:

No, you said that ANet knows exactly how to make MMO's - which would mean that you think that they are successful in doing so given the tone and reason for your statement.

Also, I wouldn't consider payment models as having anything to do with whether someone knows how to make an MMO. Keep in mind that the MMO's out there with sub payment models are still blowing away F2P games in both sales and population. I'll repeat again, Lineage 1 is by far the biggest game in NCSoft's portfolio. It really is the only thing keeping them afloat right now. Don't think that a change in payment model means anything. Starting off as B2P or F2P doesn't make a game better, it just makes it less expensive to play.

The patches really have nothing to do with the argument either. They could update the game 12 times a day if they wanted to. I mean, they have a staff of people working. They can do whatever they want. If they keep up the updates the way they are now and sales and population still fall, then the cycle of content patches has absolutely nothing to do with how well ANet knows how to make an MMO. In fact, it would mean quite the opposite.

I said they knew how to make an MMO. What's wrong with that statement?
  • They developed a game with completely different mechanics from the previous one.
  • They had all the IT infrastructure worked out for supporting an MMO playerbase, something they didn't have to worry too much about for GW1.
  • The game survived from launch till now without any major changes in business model or direction.
  • The current playerbase can support and justify the additional work put in to generate content.
  • The game contributes a significant portion to the parent company's revenue.
I'm attributing my statement to these things that I have observed. Anyone can observe the same things. I'm not talking about issues related to tastes or preferences, like Jack preferring the Trinity system, or Joe preferring a secondary profession system of whatever.

Which brings me to the next point. If you are so convinced that Anet is doing a banged up job, then exactly what are you basing this off on?
  • Have you built a better MMO, whatever "better" means?
  • If not, then do you have confidence that GW2 would have done better if it had used a different approach?
  • Are you basing your opinion off revenue generation, population, market share, industry reviews, player reviews or just your crystal ball?
Or maybe you're just basing off the last quarterly report of lower revenue?

So what? I can show you how other MMOs take a dip and recover over a protracted period of time. WoW, Runescape and Lineage all took a hit at some point before recovering. I can also show you how MMOs can take a dip in player activity after the initial hype wears off, as shown by Warhammer, Rift, Everquest 2, DOAC,a behaviour that has also been accounted for by Anet.

In the grand scheme of things, we look at trends. No moron bases off the potential of a product based on the figures on one quarterly report.

View PostMhenlo, on 22 August 2013 - 12:44 PM, said:

As far as AION is concerned, it is also a 4 year old MMO that many considered not to be that great of an MMO. So, if you think that a newly released game that had millions more in box sales should have the same revenue, I don't really know what to say. GW2 should be beating the pants off of it just based on box sales and time on the market. It's not. That's a bad sign for GW2.

I think you really don't know what to say.

I don't know which crystal ball you are gazing into. There is no way you could have known this.

You telling me that Aion should have less sales because it's been out 4 years makes no sense. WoW has been out for 9 years. Lineage has been out for what 15?

On the other hand, I could claim the exact opposite based on the fact that AION is available on the Chinese and S Korean markets and you can't prove me wrong either. Businesses are trying to break into larger or different markets because of opportunity for increased sales and securing larger market share.

How do you know that market share does not affect their bottomline more than time-to-market or "time-on-market"?

There are tons of factors that go into this.

View PostMhenlo, on 22 August 2013 - 12:44 PM, said:

What I'm saying is if GW2 does well in China and sucks in NA and EU, then how does that help the players here? The game will have a small population and very few people will be playing it. I would suggest that means the game is a flop to the people in NA and EU. Do you really think that a game that does well in China and not in the Western world means anything other than ANet doesn't know how to make a good MMO for the Western market?

It helps the company by bringing in revenue.

Increased revenue allows the company to either dedicate more resurces back to that product, or at least have some resources to experiment with new products. If GW2 sells well in NA/EU, and then goes on to sell equally well in China/S Korea, that's a lot of potential revenue they can bring in.

This in turn builds up the publisher's confidence in the product, and ensures continuity.

I can state Spellborn Chronicles as an MMO that I would have liked to play. But I never found out because the developer filed for bankruptcy some time after the game launched.

If GW2 does well in China but sucks in NA/EU, then it just means that they have built an MMO that is preferred by the Chinese market. Maybe you can say that they have no idea how to build an MMO for the NA/EU audience, but that's not the case here.

As I pointed out in the first paragraph those factors point to a healthy game product in the NA/EU region. You can say otherwise, but what exactly are you basing this off on?

View PostMhenlo, on 22 August 2013 - 12:44 PM, said:

See, I know that it is easy to try and find a way to spin whatever I say to show a positive light, only it has nothing to do with the fact that you told someone they have no right to say that ANet doesn't know how to make a good MMO. I don't think they do either. I think that this game, when looked at objectively, isn't that good. And, to go along with it, neither are it's sales and revenue after the initial marketing push before people knew what they were buying. So, all I am saying is, no matter how much you want to tell people that they don't have the authority to make a statement that you don't like - the fact is that there is very good evidence suggesting that GW2 is not a great MMO and that ANet doesn't know how to make one.

It seems like you are the one casting a negative light by throwing reflections off your spinning crystal ball. I'm only going by what I've observed. If the facts change then my opinions change.

Where are these facts you speak of? If you consider "GW2 should be beating the pants off of it just based on box sales and time on the market" to be an example of these "facts", then I would say your definition of "fact" is not the universally approved version.

If you can provide some good numbers or sound theories that GW2 will fail unless we do it your way by all means go ahead, I'm willing to listen.

In Topic: Do you still play GW2, and why?

22 August 2013 - 06:37 AM

View PostMhenlo, on 22 August 2013 - 02:45 AM, said:

Except box sales were already slowed last quarter. So, the 20% dip in revenue is more from gem sales then from box sales. That leads one to believe that the game is stagnating.

I mean, the 10% drop in NCSoft's stocks kinda prove my point that investors aren't sold that any of the NCSoft portfolio is all that exciting, except for the oldest game that they distribute, which is Lineage 1.

Again, you can try and make a positive spin by making a comparison between market sizes in Aion and GW2, but I would expect GW2 to be killing it if it was as successful as you keep trying to claim it is. The numbers don't lie. 80% and 20% losses are big numbers and it is a trend. Even if GW2 launches successfully in China doesn't mean anything for GW2 in the USA. They are two totally different markets to develop for. Not to mention that I don't think there will be anyone from the USA playing with too many people from China. Just because it is a way to possibly increase revenue over there has no impact on the importance of NA and EU revenue.

I'm not sure where the confusion started. I didn't say that GW2 was successful or not successful.

The original context of my comments was that the previous poster lacked the authority to comment that ArenaNet has "absolutely no idea how to build a full fledged MMO", considering how GW2 is faring, compared to other MMOs after the same time period had lapsed.

Rift, DCUO, SWTOR, TERA, Secret World have all made significant adjustments to their payment model after launching. Even new mmos like ArcheAge are making this change. Archeage in particular is making the switch only 6 months after going live.

GW2 went from slow meaningless content patches that trickled in every few weeks, to one content patch every 2 weeks. Of course, you can argue that these content patches are equally meaningless, but the fact that these content patches are happening more frequently than previously cues us in on the amount of resources being dedicated to the game. This in turn gives an indication of how much potential the publisher thinks the game is capable of.

You made a comment about how Aion's sales were the same as GW2. I merely said that even if they were at the same level, GW2 hasn't been launched in China and S. Korea yet. If you look at NCSoft's report, their largest market is actually S. Korea. GW2 hasn't even been launched in that market so there is still potential for growth.

If GW2 can match Aion without China and S. Korea (and this is going by what you mentioned, I haven't checked it yet), it's obviously going to exceed Aion once the game launches in that territory.

As for the last paragraph, I think you might have to re-word it (referring to "Even if GW2 launches successfully in China doesn't mean anything for GW2 in the USA"). I'm not sure what you mean by that. It's the same developer (Anet) and still owned by the same parent company (NCSoft). Doesn't matter if it's China or Russia or USA.

If you mean to say that we should only be comparing sales figures in NA/EU region, then your original comment about Aion's figures become irrelevant. Unless the amount stated in the quarterly report for Aion was NA/EU only (I'm assuming it is for all regions that offer Aion).

In Topic: Do you still play GW2, and why?

22 August 2013 - 02:18 AM

View PostMhenlo, on 21 August 2013 - 05:38 PM, said:

And yet, it is down in revenue and not nearly as dominant in the market as it should be. I mean, AION is basically making the same amount of money as GW2.

I think there is plenty of evidence to at least consider that her statement is valid.

Fluctuations are bound to happen. The game is out for almost a year, the majority of people who wanted to play would have already purchased the game by now. Until they launch in a new market, you'd expect box sales to be lower.

Since you mentioned Aion... Aion was launched in China and South Korea. If GW2 is pulling the same weight as Aion without the Chinese or South Korean market, then that shows quite a bit about the product.

In Topic: Game dev harassment eroding the industry

21 August 2013 - 11:20 AM

Every poster here is insulated from the kind of harrasment discussed here to a very large extent. If I were to spout racial slurs or sexist comments, there would be some mechanism to minimise the impact of my idiocy. The mods could moderate it, or there might be a downvote function like in other forums.

Yet when it comes to someone else, all of a sudden these forms of harrasment become fair game and par for the course. What makes the gamers so special that conventional rules don't apply to them?

Perhaps the mods here can consider making it mandatory for guru users to update their profile with verified contact details and email addresses, and then completely disable moderation of any form.

Let's test this for say, one week, and we can see if these "real world" conditions make the environment more conducive or harmful to discourse.